Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f8a657efcf0bbc182071c9d5588d355961d71827896a7287fa8bed64c1cd9a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 6c | 1,708$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.73 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 53c | 1,434$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.52 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 43c | 750$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.5 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 51c | 716$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 39c | 254.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 57c | 175.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.7 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 161.42$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 154$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…1fdebacked Yes | 61c | 146.92$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 42c | 122.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 65c | 118.17$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 44c | 117$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 101.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 61c | 99.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 54c | 92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 43c | 89.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 42c | 86.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 41c | 81.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 48c | 81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 70.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked No | 40c | 69.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 48c | 69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 48c | 69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2e…c5dbbacked Yes | 80c | 64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 61.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…b29bbacked No | 44c | 57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e7…b9a1backed Yes | 59c | 56.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 56.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 39c | 51.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Yes | 80c | 51.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed Yes | 52c | 48.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 42c | 47.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 58c | 46.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 29c | 45.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 39c | 45.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 45.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 43c | 44.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 42c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 44c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 58c | 42.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…f92fbacked Yes | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 48c | 39.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 62c | 39.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 58c | 36.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 44c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…3a34backed Yes | 58c | 35.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…ee28backed No | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 45c | 33.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 45c | 33.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 56c | 32.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 51c | 30.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 59c | 29.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…2f62backed No | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 77c | 17.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…f6fbbacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.