Europa Conference League · resolved market
Paide Linnameeskond vs. SK Rapid Wien: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6837144ffacb2f87adac958c3bf409cb00da094704c4e9354bf9d529be142455
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 20c | 10,860$2,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,210.7 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 32c | 7,154$2,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,317.68 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 77c | 5,254$4,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210.63 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 4,263$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.76 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d2…399bbacked Under | 13c | 3,068$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8df…a2c7backed Under | 11c | 1,817$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 64c | 1,637$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.11 | 42 | 90.5%38 W · 4 L | +10.6wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 61c | 997$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.51 | 270 | 39.3%106 W · 164 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 39c | 985.36$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.4 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 76c | 912.57$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.53 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e49…5166backed Over | 60c | 834.58$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.58 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +5.0wins | +0.30per pick | 65cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 25c | 833$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.25 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 70c | 717.02$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.35 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 62c | 569.91$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.56 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 12c | 556$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 106 | 27.4%29 W · 77 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 38c | 548.39$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.39 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 51c | 527.2$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.33 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 40c | 465.77$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.27 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc2…9343backed Under | 39c | 462.09$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.22 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 61c | 441$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.99 | 181 | 45.9%83 W · 98 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Over | 57c | 399.97$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.99 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…5affbacked Under | 10c | 395.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 28c | 382.92$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.28 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…0935backed Over | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.91 | 40 | 82.5%33 W · 7 L | +11.3wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…9e9bbacked Over | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0962…6e40backed Over | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 60c | 320.28$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.11 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 61c | 296.6$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.67 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 49c | 284.86$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.58 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 38c | 263.78$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.14 | 182 | 52.7%96 W · 86 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 29c | 208.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 28c | 202.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 78c | 196.85$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 61c | 180.03$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.21 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…bf47backed Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…5d2ebacked Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Over | 77c | 156$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 27c | 153.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Under | 39c | 107.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 29c | 103.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 49c | 75.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 34c | 72.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 61c | 67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 218 | 40.4%88 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 34c | 63.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 51c | 62.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 80c | 62.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 31c | 60.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 27c | 59.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 29c | 58.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 57c | 54.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +22.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 28c | 52.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc4…3b73backed Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…7b65backed Over | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 39c | 38.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -15.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 56c | 30.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 59c | 28.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +17.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 47c | 26.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +9.4wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9b21backed Over | 64c | 25.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +164.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Over | 80c | 18.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paide Linnameeskond vs. SK Rapid Wien: O/U 2.5this page
- Paide Linnameeskond vs. SK Rapid Wien: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Paide Linnameeskond vs. SK Rapid Wien: O/U 1.5Over won
- Paide Linnameeskond vs. SK Rapid Wien: O/U 3.5Over won
- Paide Linnameeskond vs. SK Rapid Wien: O/U 4.5Over won
- Paide Linnameeskond vs. SK Rapid Wien: O/U 5.5Under won
- Paide Linnameeskond vs. SK Rapid Wien: Paide Linnameeskond 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Paide Linnameeskond vs. SK Rapid Wien: Paide Linnameeskond O/U 0.5Over won
- Paide Linnameeskond vs. SK Rapid Wien: Paide Linnameeskond O/U 1.5Under won
- Paide Linnameeskond vs. SK Rapid Wien: SK Rapid Wien O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: SK Rapid Wien (-1.5)SK Rapid Wien won
- Spread: SK Rapid Wien (-2.5)SK Rapid Wien won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.