Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9640e1ed03795f97e4233664dacce0a7c52f029cf3599a42baa58b08a5f7c8c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 675$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.75 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 76c | 600$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 341.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 35c | 325.36$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.38 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 68c | 313$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.29 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 202$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 193.83$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 38c | 192.2$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 72c | 166.63$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 64c | 160$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.84 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 31c | 159.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 33c | 155.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 143.24$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 36c | 137.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 136$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 70c | 128.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 124$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 33c | 122.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 34c | 121.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 32c | 103.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 36c | 103.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 103$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 32c | 99.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 36c | 97.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 31c | 92.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 90.01$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 15c | 84.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 33c | 81.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 31c | 81.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 70c | 73.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed Yes | 27c | 65.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 47c | 63.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 67c | 61.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 19c | 60.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 67c | 60.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 55.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 66c | 48.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 36c | 44.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 66c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 69c | 41.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5325…4066backed Yes | 34c | 41.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb635…2506backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 37.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 66c | 36.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 34c | 35.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…da4bbacked Yes | 38c | 34.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 36c | 33.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a63…0e48backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 64c | 30.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 30.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 67c | 29.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 35c | 29.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 36c | 28.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 68c | 26.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 25.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 25.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 64c | 23.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 72c | 20.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 56c | 18.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 62c | 18.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 66c | 16.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 73c | 14.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 38°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 39°C or higher on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.