Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x757036e5b6e8b760a5199d3859949ea8bf7ad152942c05834360ffedd0cea53b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 61c | 386.03$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.56 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 368.51$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.96 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 344.95$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.7 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 343.17$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.79 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 310.39$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.12 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 35c | 206.66$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.3 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 205.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 184.11$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.82 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 27c | 170.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 64c | 163.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.7 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 69c | 158.58$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…2e0dbacked Yes | 65c | 154.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 144.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 42c | 138$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.68 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 36c | 131$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 56c | 107.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 61c | 104.89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.17 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 44c | 101.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.14 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 35c | 97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.48 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…ae20backed Yes | 74c | 94.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 94.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 39c | 91.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.25 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 70c | 88.21$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 61c | 84.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 59c | 81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 37c | 80.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 27c | 73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 61c | 71.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 68.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 39c | 66.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 79c | 64.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 48c | 61.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 42c | 61.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 61c | 60.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 49c | 59.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 75c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 71c | 53.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 20c | 51.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 50.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 35c | 49.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 46c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 33c | 45.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 41.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 36c | 40.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 36c | 40.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 50c | 40.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 39.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 62c | 38.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 50c | 36.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 62c | 33.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 55c | 32.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 54c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 68c | 29.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cea…cc13backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 22.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…52abbacked No | 68c | 21.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x527e…384ebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 67c | 19.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 65c | 18.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 16.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 77c | 13.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 38°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 39°C or higher on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.