TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, Lynn Vision
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$113,880
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$123,133

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,880 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1136…0c2ebacked PARIVISION63c15,000$9,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,55014050.7%71 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Lynn Vision38c13,333$5,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,023.0333343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x249a…52e5backed Lynn Vision37c9,140$3,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,381.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked PARIVISION63c6,480$4,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,397.5929046.9%136 W · 154 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Lynn Vision38c5,346$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,015.832,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked Lynn Vision4c5,246$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.3563157.1%360 W · 271 L+40.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked PARIVISION73c5,175$3,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,371.933,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a5…391cbacked PARIVISION62c4,325$2,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,643.5510550.5%53 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked PARIVISION63c3,566$2,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.499343%40 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43f2…6fc2backed Lynn Vision37c3,500$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2952352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+38.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed PARIVISION61c3,358$2,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,302.1287047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Lynn Vision38c3,110$1,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.7740140.6%163 W · 238 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Lynn Vision37c3,000$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,11017045.9%78 W · 92 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked Lynn Vision37c2,844$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.177948.1%38 W · 41 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcf…056bbacked Lynn Vision37c2,432$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.7711354.9%62 W · 51 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f9…bb8fbacked PARIVISION63c1,944$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.2810138.6%39 W · 62 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Lynn Vision14c1,709$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.41,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Lynn Vision10c1,600$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.921,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Lynn Vision13c1,302$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.826,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa5e…1468backed PARIVISION61c1,296$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.568540%34 W · 51 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-17.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked Lynn Vision1c1,253$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5821522.3%48 W · 167 L-0.3wins0.00per pick22cpaid-45.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Lynn Vision38c1,248$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4771,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Lynn Vision40c1,236$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked PARIVISION62c1,180$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.481,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed PARIVISION63c1,174$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.352,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f4…88e6backed Lynn Vision6c1,088$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7012027.5%33 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick27cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f0b…f901backed PARIVISION76c1,053$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.7135953.2%191 W · 168 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Lynn Vision40c1,000$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39555843.5%243 W · 315 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Lynn Vision38c999.36$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.7561034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Lynn Vision37c926.86$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.9459343.2%256 W · 337 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0650…865cbacked Lynn Vision38c922$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed PARIVISION62c916.35$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.2172453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Lynn Vision14c897.99$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.9322838.6%88 W · 140 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d29…8264backed PARIVISION63c825.4$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.44346.5%20 W · 23 L-6.5wins-0.15per pick62cpaid-25.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Lynn Vision39c800.91$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.3539548.6%192 W · 203 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf65f…0c27backed Lynn Vision14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004833.3%16 W · 32 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-31%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked PARIVISION76c698$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.671,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Lynn Vision37c697$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.895,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36e9…d246backed PARIVISION74c676.73$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.2526368.8%181 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-1.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Lynn Vision37c612.07$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.632,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd468…f6febacked Lynn Vision9c589.96$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1946042.8%197 W · 263 L+16.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x642c…21a7backed PARIVISION72c577$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.0420251%103 W · 99 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7c0…dadabacked Lynn Vision37c570$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.919342.5%82 W · 111 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d03…100ebacked PARIVISION75c534.08$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.841069.3%284 W · 126 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed PARIVISION63c502.3$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.8744648.4%216 W · 230 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Lynn Vision5c500$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5318442.9%79 W · 105 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d0c…1249backed PARIVISION63c499.99$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.9918338.8%71 W · 112 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd8d…a7a8backed Lynn Vision36c493.52$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.674748.9%23 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x44c8…a9ffbacked PARIVISION61c463.34$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.782835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x26d6…33ddbacked PARIVISION79c411.69$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.451457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90a4…cde3backed Lynn Vision14c411.04$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.713240.6%13 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked PARIVISION79c357.09$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.354,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Lynn Vision36c324.45$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.81,57335.3%556 W · 1,017 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed PARIVISION62c320$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.5699148.3%479 W · 512 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77ac…1bf6backed PARIVISION64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.527961.3%171 W · 108 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc40…5ad4backed PARIVISION64c310.39$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.741163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Lynn Vision21c292.61$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.794,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18d6…2245backed Lynn Vision39c253.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Lynn Vision10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2541716.5%69 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79df…31d6backed Lynn Vision4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1027831.7%88 W · 190 L-1.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0844…bf81backed Lynn Vision37c249.14$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1835148.1%169 W · 182 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ce8…63febacked Lynn Vision44c229.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007448.6%36 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ddc…e874backed PARIVISION63c216.77$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.339533.7%32 W · 63 L-9.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-41.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc2b4…2ce6backed PARIVISION64c201.41$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4129757.6%171 W · 126 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac9c…50d8backed Lynn Vision5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1025416.9%43 W · 211 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6385…2afabacked Lynn Vision5c199.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1141516.6%69 W · 346 L-36.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-41.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x76d4…c512backed Lynn Vision23c196.71$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.526232.3%20 W · 42 L-7.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-48.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ea8…0491backed PARIVISION62c190$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.516741.9%70 W · 97 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Lynn Vision37c183$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7180942.3%342 W · 467 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe881…fb3dbacked PARIVISION63c175.47$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.9935466.1%234 W · 120 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a5e…8fd0backed Lynn Vision9c174.22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6822444.2%99 W · 125 L-16.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-20.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x525d…1f1bbacked PARIVISION65c169.9$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.910655.7%59 W · 47 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc056…e188backed PARIVISION62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.298751.7%45 W · 42 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Lynn Vision44c159.09$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7037232.5%121 W · 251 L-14.2wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Lynn Vision29c155.17$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4534036.5%124 W · 216 L-1.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed PARIVISION56c149.09$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.61,03839.9%414 W · 624 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8bd…fc74backed Lynn Vision9c140.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1130831.2%96 W · 212 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3317…166abacked Lynn Vision30c129.59$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b26…57e9backed PARIVISION62c106.08$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.951,48558%862 W · 623 L+66.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7b2…70f0backed Lynn Vision38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3842831.3%134 W · 294 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32f1…c96ebacked PARIVISION64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368664%55 W · 31 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cbc…b637backed Lynn Vision26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2662538.6%241 W · 384 L-16.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed PARIVISION62c91.63$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8222750.2%114 W · 113 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62d5…bc0cbacked PARIVISION62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6526457.2%151 W · 113 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…d703backed PARIVISION66c80.3$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.338552.7%203 W · 182 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb00…fda1backed Lynn Vision38c78.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3041147.7%196 W · 215 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a1b…67b1backed PARIVISION65c76.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.921526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick48cpaid+29.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lynn Vision30c72.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.85,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e55…ec55backed PARIVISION75c70$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.562744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed PARIVISION63c67$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.791442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8aa…0ae3backed PARIVISION79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2931372.8%228 W · 85 L+11.3wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae8d…210fbacked PARIVISION65c61.54$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5410855.6%60 W · 48 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Lynn Vision44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2280740.3%325 W · 482 L-3.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed PARIVISION64c42.34$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.246654.5%36 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b8d…4b6fbacked PARIVISION74c40.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.544367.4%29 W · 14 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xff66…39cfbacked PARIVISION63c39.69$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.691353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Lynn Vision38c38.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.82,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked PARIVISION66c34.4$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.723,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8220…b014backed PARIVISION64c33.59$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.092475%18 W · 6 L+5.5wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+49.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x35f0…971ebacked PARIVISION66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.231647.8%151 W · 165 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.