Asian League · resolved market
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5843b69fcc73d4ea13eee44fa3558f05425a4df66e528bd750a15e6d331b8067
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 46c | 10,870$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000.1 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +17.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 8,617$5,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,482.34 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over | 15c | 4,155$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 72c | 2,349$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.06 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…d2dcbacked Under | 65c | 1,304$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.35 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…e900backed Over | 20c | 879.05$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.34 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 22c | 865.73$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.75 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 17c | 823.75$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.43 | 83 | 18.1%15 W · 68 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 18c | 724.97$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.24 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…c51bbacked Under | 72c | 554.58$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 56c | 527.64$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.05 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Under | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 25c | 456.04$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.01 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 33c | 370$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 144 | 29.2%42 W · 102 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99e2…ffd9backed Over | 49c | 288.08$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 70c | 283.9$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.52 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 54c | 276$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.96 | 142 | 47.2%67 W · 75 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1f…9b29backed Under | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 57c | 189.09$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.73 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 80c | 177.25$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 17c | 167.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Under | 73c | 162.13$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2e…5b64backed Over | 42c | 110$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5087…2d85backed Over | 18c | 105.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…cf6fbacked Over | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 17c | 89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Under | 69c | 63.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 70c | 62.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 114 | 33.3%38 W · 76 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 43c | 46.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 54c | 46.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 54c | 37.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 34c | 30.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed Under | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Under | 55c | 29.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18bb…42d9backed Over | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Under | 58c | 24.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae3…93c3backed Under | 58c | 24.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Under | 61c | 23.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Qingdao Xihaian FC (-1.5)Shanghai Shenhua FC won
- Spread: Qingdao Xihaian FC (-2.5)Shanghai Shenhua FC won
- Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)Qingdao Xihaian FC won
- Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5)Qingdao Xihaian FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.