MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c814a0b6dd70e3c9beb32e2016a363d1641c23d932d06c74eb9454437afa464
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf559…f462backed Under | 55c | 29,848$16,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,287.44 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Under | 56c | 16,508$9,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,272.77 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 45c | 7,681$3,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,456.33 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 44c | 5,455$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 3,139$1,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,433.74 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 2,780$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.96 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 44c | 2,145$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.7 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 7c | 1,740$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 39c | 1,356$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.21 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 1,100$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.33 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 8c | 1,099$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.87 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 54c | 974$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.61 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 44c | 933.55$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.76 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 55c | 912$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.4 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 33c | 789.59$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.5 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 44c | 731.85$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.81 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 44c | 568.85$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.95 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 44c | 553$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.17 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 65c | 539.52$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.44 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 56c | 510.23$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.5 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 8c | 373$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 57c | 303.01$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.3 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Over | 46c | 260.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…e183backed Under | 55c | 254.55$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.55 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 45c | 218.45$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.26 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Under | 56c | 197$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.68 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 54c | 189.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.39 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…69aabacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Over | 7c | 149$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 26c | 141.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 44c | 130$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 54c | 128.4$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.06 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Under | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 59c | 120.41$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 36c | 93.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Over | 19c | 92.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…1306backed Under | 55c | 78.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Over | 46c | 75.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcebf…832ebacked Over | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 46c | 58.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 46c | 58.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…79ddbacked Over | 46c | 56.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd5…ecbebacked Under | 55c | 47.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 190 | 41.1%78 W · 112 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Over | 46c | 44.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed Under | 57c | 43.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…2c8abacked Over | 44c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 45c | 41.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Over | 41c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 57c | 36.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 34c | 31.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 44c | 26.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 44c | 23.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x472e…f338backed Under | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 67c | 21.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x065c…47debacked Under | 58c | 19.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…93f9backed Under | 72c | 17.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.