MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdb7b4cf232b0447db031ad137241d43b8f8e2f14488ca680e888801643fc43e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 64c | 11,779$7,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,247.88 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 36c | 10,881$3,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,917.26 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 64c | 5,745$3,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,068.34 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 36c | 2,348$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.68 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 63c | 550.28$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.6 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 37c | 537.08$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.72 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 37c | 499$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.44 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 36c | 415.67$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.31 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.2 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 35c | 314.31$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 36c | 311.92$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.75 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 37c | 301$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.37 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 36c | 299.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.75 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 64c | 295$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.2 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Over | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Under | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Over | 36c | 99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 36c | 98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 292 | 51%149 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc401…ce26backed Over | 37c | 89.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 37c | 75.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 63c | 73.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 32c | 68.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb675…779fbacked Over | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 36c | 45.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 37c | 43.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…f659backed Over | 37c | 41.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Under | 64c | 38.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 64c | 28.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 37c | 27.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.