Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 end of June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd595f8228591542062971aae8babc54b262f3e6065ac0219d3bcb5cda73b44e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 2c | 1,158$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 3c | 866.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 69c | 762.49$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.28 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46c2…927bbacked No | 6c | 368$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4626…572abacked No | 7c | 172$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…3ffebacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…94fdbacked No | 80c | 97$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 49c | 87.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b6…e854backed No | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Yes | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21aa…fea9backed Yes | 69c | 16.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f92…dc6bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 end of June?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 end of June?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 end of June?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $250 end of June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.