Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1da0fb661e2b852d009556b8ea6178e2bec7f5f030123c09d23bb8fb22935657
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,182$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.63 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 3c | 2,066$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,027$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.67 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 6c | 1,914$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.49 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 7c | 1,908$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.65 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 15c | 1,308$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.15 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,282$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.91 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 13c | 1,172$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.66 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 11c | 900.16$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.37 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 9c | 895.83$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 11c | 790.27$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.07 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 14c | 741.73$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 671.16$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 14c | 637.94$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.61 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 11c | 610.78$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.28 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 14c | 602.09$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 10c | 588.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 6c | 580.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 6c | 545.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b1…ab05backed Yes | 8c | 533.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 10c | 483.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 22c | 482.01$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 470.25$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 19c | 409.6$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.64 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed Yes | 12c | 398.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 14c | 379.39$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 15c | 368.36$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 367.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 16c | 331.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 6c | 272.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 10c | 238.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0123…d399backed Yes | 10c | 236.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800d…e1d0backed Yes | 12c | 222.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 213.37$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 5c | 204$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 188 | 4.8%9 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 6c | 202.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 12c | 194.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 6c | 192.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 17c | 187.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 10c | 186.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked Yes | 15c | 171.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e7…73c4backed Yes | 24c | 147.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 7c | 145.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 26c | 137.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb86…fb51backed Yes | 9c | 129.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4722…36bbbacked No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 10c | 123.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 10c | 113.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 13c | 108.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d74…6bcbbacked Yes | 14c | 104.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…e28ebacked Yes | 10c | 103.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 24c | 100.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8530…2710backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 22c | 98.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 98.45$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 72c | 97.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…ea77backed Yes | 19c | 96.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 18c | 96.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 16c | 95.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd210…92dfbacked Yes | 17c | 95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd636…230bbacked Yes | 33c | 92.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 87.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76d9…dfbcbacked Yes | 16c | 80.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 22c | 74.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…8ab9backed Yes | 14c | 73.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 21c | 64.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x207e…319abacked Yes | 36c | 61.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 69c | 57.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 44.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 76c | 40.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…03cebacked Yes | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -51%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked Yes | 28c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 72c | 20.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 69c | 19.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 18.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 70c | 17.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd4…81dcbacked No | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.