Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x180f4f3809cd7f2156079bc6f78ec190b63b401ad46d2b888cada9f684b210d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 27c | 2,841$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.95 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 1,404$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.83 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 25c | 1,310$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.16 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 34c | 1,303$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.06 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 46c | 1,286$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.17 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 9c | 1,267$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.55 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,234$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.22 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 955.17$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.18 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 28c | 931.15$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.37 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe7…ddf5backed Yes | 73c | 894.74$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 860.89$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 4c | 726.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 40c | 710.41$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.81 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…675cbacked No | 30c | 662$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.69 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.37per pick | 52cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 35c | 596.88$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.27 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 37c | 573.34$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.14 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 556.87$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.36 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed No | 80c | 549.39$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.47 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 18c | 540.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa43e…d205backed Yes | 63c | 527.33$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked No | 77c | 522.01$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.07 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 521.31$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.48 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 37c | 512.9$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.81 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 490.1$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 481.9$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 471.86$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.85 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 42c | 455.2$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.17 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 43c | 450.64$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.78 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 415.64$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 30c | 406.98$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.2 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 58c | 406.11$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.34 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 76c | 406$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.44 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 69c | 398.01$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0123…d399backed Yes | 72c | 390.7$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.99 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 12c | 360.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 37c | 348.13$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.07 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x864e…b2efbacked Yes | 39c | 325.78$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.74 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…bf49backed Yes | 27c | 323.01$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.09 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 318$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.87 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 30c | 310.66$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.22 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 4c | 308.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 54c | 293.85$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.46 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 26c | 287.14$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.66 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 30c | 283.63$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.72 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 278.85$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.01 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd636…230bbacked Yes | 34c | 248.7$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed No | 74c | 225.83$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 26c | 224.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.82 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044e…3158backed Yes | 44c | 223.72$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.53 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 30c | 221.55$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.66 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 219.62$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 10c | 212.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 26c | 210.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…ea77backed Yes | 44c | 209.19$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.37 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 205$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 46c | 200.42$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8516…35abbacked Yes | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 47c | 193.75$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.3 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee3…5f24backed Yes | 54c | 186.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 52c | 175.79$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.11 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 15c | 171.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 16c | 152.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 26c | 148.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 67c | 146.11$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked Yes | 35c | 145.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 44c | 142$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 28c | 141.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 140$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 19c | 140$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 73c | 139.09$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 33c | 137.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 133.15$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x202e…619cbacked Yes | 34c | 133$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…f5e2backed Yes | 27c | 131.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 63c | 123.05$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed No | 71c | 122.12$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 16c | 114.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…32babacked Yes | 37c | 108$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 27c | 105.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…3592backed Yes | 37c | 104.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d9…dfbcbacked Yes | 33c | 104.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a15…d62abacked Yes | 29c | 104$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 72c | 103$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cba…e9dbbacked Yes | 40c | 100.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaad…255cbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 99.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 22c | 97.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aca…5c89backed Yes | 73c | 96.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed No | 46c | 93.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 52c | 90.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 14c | 86.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.