TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,224
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,878

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,224 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes20c2,845$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.1333929.5%100 W · 239 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes9c1,306$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.6810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes12c1,296$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.5928925.3%73 W · 216 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-25.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes11c1,285$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.478719.5%17 W · 70 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-35.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes15c836.26$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.5315433.8%52 W · 102 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Yes8c600$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4516126.1%42 W · 119 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-1.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes14c590.87$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5823633.5%79 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes33c499.74$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.9610731.8%34 W · 73 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes19c439.63$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.492,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e9…8e07backed No71c430.32$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.6120250.5%102 W · 100 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes13c420$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.69913.1%13 W · 86 L-0.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes10c389$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6576924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No65c370.12$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.034,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes8c307.42$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6734922.9%80 W · 269 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd636…230bbacked Yes24c292.76$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-45%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No58c272.58$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.16,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No78c262.58$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.164,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0751…073abacked Yes36c219.71$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3919255.2%106 W · 86 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No71c217.85$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.174,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes12c214.47$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.383,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4832…bb63backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204148.8%20 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes15c199.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.985437%20 W · 34 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid-0.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x82c2…5905backed Yes22c196.3$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.371631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes16c191.42$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1127129.2%79 W · 192 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes23c177.57$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011127%30 W · 81 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b9…1e0ebacked No57c174.91$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.919647.9%46 W · 50 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-1.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes9c173.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.031,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes10c170$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.23,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0123…d399backed Yes17c146$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.332927.6%8 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e42…4938backed No66c142.94$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1338830.2%117 W · 271 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No80c134.15$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.14,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad50…3122backed Yes29c128.9$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.947423.6%112 W · 362 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x438a…61c4backed Yes12c124$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4123143.3%100 W · 131 L+19.0wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No67c121.11$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.382,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes16c120.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.021,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes11c120.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0510750.5%54 W · 53 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdadb…1870backed No59c116$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0458922.8%134 W · 455 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No75c114.52$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.082,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes21c109.85$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.256439.1%25 W · 39 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1276…ec87backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193868.4%26 W · 12 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+23.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1179947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2849646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed3f…3e99backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143531.4%11 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13d3…415ebacked Yes16c99.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.642253.1%224 W · 198 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes28c99.97$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.483,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes14c98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.666726.9%18 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x71d3…e130backed No59c96.74$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.663743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f26…f7f3backed Yes17c88.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.722665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+17.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x24e1…96c8backed Yes13c81.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.831346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b6…e9f5backed Yes21c69.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.322138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No59c67.55$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5568867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No80c64$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.124,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No70c57.39$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.232,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No79c49.96$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5589951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No78c49.47$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.112,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No59c47.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.522,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0fa…4780backed Yes21c46.77$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x478f…e43cbacked Yes24c41.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f13…8adbbacked Yes24c41.32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa087…91f7backed Yes25c41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2517635.2%62 W · 114 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011330.1%34 W · 79 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd3f…5d84backed No74c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.480275.7%607 W · 195 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf507…681abacked Yes40c30.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No73c30.27$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.162,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7eec…c8edbacked No75c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.619769.5%137 W · 60 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No76c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.340862.3%254 W · 154 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No71c28.59$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.272,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ce9…a994backed No66c26.69$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.07977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+50.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No70c26.29$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.912,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x290a…0994backed No58c25.35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.661464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+37.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No61c24.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.561,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d8c…f777backed No80c23.83$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.834852.1%25 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x431a…88a2backed No80c21.51$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.35884.5%49 W · 9 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick76cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No74c21.45$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.612,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa51…6199backed No78c19.23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2362275.2%468 W · 154 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No60c18.31$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.311,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No78c17.6$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.952,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef34…8f80backed No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.55100%5 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.