Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21702cbfcaf6f54d02757328becc15895c81f559dae2cf2721c1383a987c89b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 27c | 2,421$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,775.37 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 1,431$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.7 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 1,273$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.48 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 67c | 1,079$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.51 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 1,041$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 47c | 892.38$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.5 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 10c | 866.61$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.54 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 26c | 846.29$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.45 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 31c | 799.99$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.69 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 28c | 797.02$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.59 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 52c | 780.18$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.95 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 74c | 760.52$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.38 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 44c | 744.94$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.6 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed No | 74c | 700$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.06 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 34c | 690.56$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.51 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 624.63$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.89 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 52c | 623.56$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.13 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 41c | 621.69$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.81 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 32c | 573.51$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.22 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 510.9$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 23c | 507.92$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.31 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 11c | 505.13$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 43c | 478.74$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.43 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 30c | 380.7$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.75 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 28c | 367.76$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.3 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 10c | 367.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 76c | 355.5$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.19 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 45c | 300.21$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.49 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 290$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 278$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.47 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 26c | 269.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.79 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 267$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…0ab0backed Yes | 73c | 220.45$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.9 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 59c | 219.99$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8516…35abbacked Yes | 40c | 218.1$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 213.36$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.28 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 57c | 207.77$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.06 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 37c | 207.3$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.7 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked No | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked No | 10c | 199.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -58%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 33c | 188.57$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.03 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 39c | 169.55$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 58c | 169.04$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.44 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 166$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.78 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 64c | 165.1$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 30c | 165$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.16 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cba…e9dbbacked Yes | 68c | 160.35$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 31c | 158.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.9 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 144.01$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 68c | 141.41$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 53c | 134.42$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.49 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 46c | 134.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 133.15$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.04 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd636…230bbacked Yes | 45c | 132.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.38 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ab…c964backed Yes | 67c | 127.57$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 78c | 126.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b9…90d0backed Yes | 67c | 126$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…ea77backed Yes | 56c | 124.16$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 29c | 120.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.48 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 44c | 117$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b1…ab05backed Yes | 14c | 116.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.6 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 72c | 112.28$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 23c | 110$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 26c | 110$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.48 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 109.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.67 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 43c | 106$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.88 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 26c | 102.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044e…3158backed Yes | 38c | 102.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 24c | 98.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.76 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 21c | 98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.74 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 37c | 97.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.7 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 42c | 95.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 52c | 94.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d88…6adebacked Yes | 32c | 92.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x207e…319abacked Yes | 45c | 91.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 57c | 88.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 50c | 84.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…4907backed No | 42c | 83.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76d9…dfbcbacked Yes | 33c | 82.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 23c | 81.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 44c | 81.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…32babacked Yes | 49c | 79.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 63c | 79.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 78.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 77c | 78.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2c…a94cbacked Yes | 21c | 75.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.79 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 71.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.82 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x534f…4f76backed Yes | 68c | 70.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…f5e2backed Yes | 69c | 69.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 67.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd556…6713backed Yes | 75c | 63.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 46c | 62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.