World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1869913bb2dd1879b62dbdf601d433f6d88692f17817019cab8aa36473192a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 2c | 734.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74c0…74a2backed Yes | 13c | 495.29$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 13c | 425.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 200.25$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 197$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 6c | 179.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda9c…ffb3backed Yes | 8c | 141.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 75c | 133.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 9c | 131.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 126$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 95.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…e34dbacked Yes | 27c | 73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 71c | 64.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 55.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 25c | 47.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked Yes | 23c | 43.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 43.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 34.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 29.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 77c | 26.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed No | 78c | 19.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 16.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 76c | 15.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 71c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.72 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.