World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdddd20c8e88caaa2eaf8d0b005c1c6d246edf2f8b1be18479cf4edc2b70239f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5158…4b30backed Yes | 0c | 43,029$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 59c | 438.17$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.4 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 57c | 425.7$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.33 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 45c | 298.62$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.82 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 31c | 288.75$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.87 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 265.58$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 257.19$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 249$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.83 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 41c | 244$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.06 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 238.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 41c | 238.15$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.74 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 66cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 28c | 212.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 65c | 204.72$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.65 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 202.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 31c | 197.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 45c | 187.71$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.99 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed No | 67c | 182.35$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 64c | 182.18$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.37 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 33c | 179$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.98 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 174$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.31 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 172.87$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 39c | 154.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 150.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 10c | 142.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 140.08$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.22 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 73c | 129.01$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 49c | 128.39$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 119.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 49c | 118.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.82 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 114.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…d97fbacked No | 77c | 113.04$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 67c | 110.32$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 61c | 104.24$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 40c | 100.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b42…ba1abacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…700cbacked Yes | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 13c | 98.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 27c | 96.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 94.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 40c | 93.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 54c | 93.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 63c | 89.55$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 60c | 85.91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 84.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 83.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 60c | 82.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 24c | 81.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 38c | 79.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 62c | 79.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 21c | 78.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 74.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…e9f5backed Yes | 73c | 71.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…91dfbacked No | 42c | 69.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 44c | 64.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…5946backed Yes | 39c | 64.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 51c | 61.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 61.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe684…da82backed No | 52c | 61.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 53c | 61.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 58.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 37c | 58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 25c | 57.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 77c | 55.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked No | 61c | 54.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 27c | 51.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…ddf5backed Yes | 64c | 50.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…3925backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 40c | 49.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 31c | 49.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 47c | 48.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 48.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 48c | 48.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 27c | 47.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 32c | 46.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 46c | 43.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +40%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 69c | 43.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 32c | 41.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 33c | 41.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 61c | 40.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 40c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 66c | 30.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…da4bbacked Yes | 66c | 30.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a98…5f27backed Yes | 64c | 29.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 29.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 52c | 29.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 54c | 27.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.