World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c62cc01e6c524b2d16efe080c8c3153a9fb0b13ee0e0133d4e4f5d42dc6bcad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 0c | 5,106$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 49c | 751.82$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.98 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 351.01$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.72 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 309.34$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.31 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 309$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.66 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 297$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.54 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 254.24$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.82 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 252.32$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.31 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 7c | 245.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.95 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 47c | 221.58$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.62 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 68c | 195.47$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.67 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 191.55$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.89 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 72c | 187.7$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.02 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 156.73$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.72 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74c0…74a2backed Yes | 44c | 135.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…8898backed Yes | 18c | 123.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +470.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0d06backed No | 49c | 122.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 49c | 119$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 116.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 111.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.28 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 48c | 111.47$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.47 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 103.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.42 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 43c | 92.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.97 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 61c | 91.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 45c | 88.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 19c | 79.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.16 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 51c | 78.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1906…c647backed No | 66c | 76.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 53c | 74.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 33c | 71.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 42c | 66.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 47c | 64.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 62.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 17c | 59.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 24c | 58.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 52c | 57.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 55c | 57.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 49c | 55.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…ae5dbacked Yes | 41c | 55.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 46c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 47c | 52.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 38c | 52.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 38c | 51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…05ccbacked Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 60c | 47.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 49c | 47.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 44c | 45.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…c110backed Yes | 49c | 45.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 49c | 45.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 33c | 45.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 44c | 45.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 48c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 47c | 44.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 44.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 42c | 43.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 69c | 42.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 27c | 40.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 52c | 40.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 26c | 38.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 52c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 42c | 35.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…ba62backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 54c | 34.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 52c | 34.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 61c | 33.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 51c | 31.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 59c | 30.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 53c | 30.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 61c | 29.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 58c | 29.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 74c | 29.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 60c | 27.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 39c | 26.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 52c | 25.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 45c | 25.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 48c | 25.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 52c | 25.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 57c | 24.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 73c | 23.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 48c | 23.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 22.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…6e79backed No | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.