TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,927
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,910

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,927 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes30c1,727$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.6823723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes21c764.42$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.734129.3%12 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No63c550.86$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.8132748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes25c522.24$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.58736.8%32 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fd5…c897backed Yes27c348.56$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No73c288.61$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.7932354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No75c286.59$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.3921854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No65c285.78$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.6912055.8%67 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No75c262.25$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2812055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes28c261.76$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1818158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes19c238.02$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7532639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No66c223.77$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.0814521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes5c218.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1410414.4%15 W · 89 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc327…d803backed Yes12c199.69$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.365427.8%15 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes9c193.32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6812816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No68c184.25$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.115855.2%32 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed No71c175.73$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.22955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes12c171.8$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.377517.3%13 W · 62 L-0.2wins0.00per pick18cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d70…cc5ebacked No76c170.99$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.242572%18 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes19c165.54$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2488448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No66c160$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.413268.9%91 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes30c152.38$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.18038.8%31 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed No74c149.99$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.511053.6%59 W · 51 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x189e…89d9backed Yes23c149$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5890%0 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes24c141.28$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.268743.7%38 W · 49 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes20c141$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6111045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes8c138.54$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.42234.3%1 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-82.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No63c138.22$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.8944138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes16c121.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4216934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b32…9f3cbacked Yes28c120$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25f9…1cfabacked Yes34c118.65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes15c113.16$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3927143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes24c110$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.11741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc716…bbe3backed Yes23c104.48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes33c102.05$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.328438.1%32 W · 52 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa760…2c51backed No76c101.88$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.551376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+36.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7ea…ea62backed No75c100.32$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.29966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337450%37 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.57020%14 W · 56 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6314842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No70c96.77$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.523669.4%25 W · 11 L+4.8wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+26.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes13c90.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.717741.6%32 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes30c87.95$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.571,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe44…5d00backed Yes16c83.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No68c83.48$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4613646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No77c81.26$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8314467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked Yes28c80.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.71163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes22c80$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.528235.4%29 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes18c79.72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.169160.4%55 W · 36 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes26c78$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.584261.9%26 W · 16 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+28.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes27c77.18$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.624831.3%15 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No72c75.89$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.294753.2%25 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf30d…fe15backed No68c73.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.43250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No79c72.11$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0652850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes27c71.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.723225%8 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x361c…99d4backed No70c71.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.791776.5%13 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes33c69.16$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.861747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+31%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes35c69$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1510320.4%21 W · 82 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes15c68.66$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3222111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed29…3848backed Yes29c65.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.82030%6 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No70c63.08$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8515036.7%55 W · 95 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes28c59.79$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.57951.9%41 W · 38 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No78c58.96$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.176960.9%42 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes17c58.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2544428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x437b…95f5backed No66c57.96$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.661566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+61.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes33c53.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8112238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0308…55c6backed Yes23c52.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x859c…6eafbacked Yes22c51.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.26224.2%15 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63ac…4127backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No65c49.27$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.267561.3%46 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No66c49$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.625853.4%31 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4fc…7a72backed Yes28c45.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.911145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No77c45.31$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.626355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes33c41.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.818937.1%33 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No67c41.46$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6814351.7%74 W · 69 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.81741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No69c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.62657.7%15 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked No63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155843.1%25 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No75c38.31$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5431152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5589…a3fabacked No71c36.63$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.62666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6793…1869backed No66c36$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.241675%12 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick74cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes34c35.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8918035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3114…eaaabacked Yes37c34.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.71225%3 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes30c34.24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.268739.1%34 W · 53 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x914e…8355backed No67c34.18$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.191861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.779959.6%59 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.72055%11 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.18556.5%48 W · 37 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-10.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84e3…3dfdbacked No80c29.79$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.96785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick77cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No67c25.24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.334266.7%28 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No66c24.71$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.465170.6%36 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf8b…4dedbacked No76c23.67$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.692347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No65c23.2$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.126765.7%44 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No66c23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.821060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+67.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No67c21.62$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0511161.3%68 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No67c21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9310344.7%46 W · 57 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-23.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd255…3c50backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.958775.9%66 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.