World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf6453c7af7978a8345dada0697d7eb591dd33e2fe15618f895aeaa7c26080d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,629$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.37 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 432.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 14c | 351.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 12c | 338.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 12c | 304.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 20c | 296$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 23c | 295.39$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…50ccbacked Yes | 16c | 279.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 18c | 237.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 216.04$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 24c | 211.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 18c | 211.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 199.56$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 194.42$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 23c | 194.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 80c | 179.35$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 12c | 169.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 29c | 142.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…26e8backed Yes | 24c | 139.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 18c | 130.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…ee79backed Yes | 16c | 127.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +99%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 16c | 119.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 14c | 119.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 12c | 117.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 30c | 116.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 11c | 112.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 19c | 112.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 112.26$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 14c | 111.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 111.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 101.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 10c | 101.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b7…eeb5backed Yes | 18c | 100.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 10c | 97.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed Yes | 19c | 94.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 92.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 19c | 92.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 25c | 91.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 85.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 13c | 83.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 81.27$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 79c | 79.08$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 13c | 75.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…b50ebacked Yes | 25c | 70.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…e06fbacked Yes | 29c | 64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d5…1b8abacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 79cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 58.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 70c | 54.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 21c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 80c | 51.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f84…7055backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +151.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 72c | 39.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 79c | 38.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 80c | 37.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 38c | 34.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…3cecbacked No | 76c | 33.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 77c | 28.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 58 | 75.9%44 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bf…04aabacked No | 78c | 27.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 27.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 77c | 26.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 78c | 25.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 72c | 23.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9d…e947backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 80c | 18.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 75c | 13.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.