World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5af5f15a673221e700981cc807ff336a56606c9439a5053ef7753f5eb2db8c43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 1,358$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.31 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 31c | 530.99$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.31 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 411.4$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 15c | 366.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 38c | 354.96$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.28 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 336.52$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.82 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 322.31$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.55 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 37c | 285.69$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.46 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 60c | 285.49$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.77 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 284.61$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.27 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 51c | 260.83$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.65 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 256.17$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.62 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 38c | 251.01$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +154.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…b50ebacked Yes | 38c | 234.6$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 234$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.56 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 214.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 39c | 204.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.6 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 42c | 191.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.08 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 8c | 178.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 36c | 168.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.7 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 9c | 142.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 39c | 140$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 71c | 131.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 45c | 129.37$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 50c | 124.6$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 56c | 123.62$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f9…1cfabacked Yes | 49c | 123.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 123$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 27c | 119.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 32c | 114.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.17 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 60c | 114.95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 107$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 59c | 105.94$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…9f3cbacked Yes | 43c | 105$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 102.7$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 52c | 100.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed Yes | 37c | 100.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 56c | 97.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 49c | 86.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 62c | 83.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 53c | 81.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 53c | 79.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 57c | 78.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 59c | 77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 63c | 76.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 63c | 76.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 53c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 50c | 69.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 68.62$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bc…8c38backed Yes | 80c | 64.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 63.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 52c | 62.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 50c | 61.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 41c | 61.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…878ebacked Yes | 80c | 60.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 60.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +157.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 47c | 57.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 57.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 55.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 55c | 53.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 52.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc85…1631backed Yes | 39c | 51.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 50c | 50.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 49.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 34c | 48.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 44c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d7…9f0cbacked No | 60c | 46.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 50c | 45.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 61c | 45.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 50c | 40.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 41c | 39.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…3952backed Yes | 55c | 38.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 53c | 37.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 80c | 37.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 54c | 36.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +40%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 44c | 36.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3114…eaaabacked Yes | 37c | 35.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 33.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 66c | 32.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 61c | 32.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…fe15backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac6…5fb4backed Yes | 40c | 32.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…e5d7backed Yes | 78c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.