World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd300e512326f9d2cd924e72eefc0bc5631ea0f1b45820352f0da50d190b6790
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 79c | 1,255$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.43 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 46c | 599.63$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.16 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 31c | 548.53$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.89 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 519.88$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.93 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f7…1c8fbacked No | 72c | 499.6$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 362.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 6c | 345.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 338.76$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.15 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 291.39$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.1 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed No | 75c | 283.71$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.11 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 233.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.57 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 28c | 231.77$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.62 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 68c | 211$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.48 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 31c | 181.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.68 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 14c | 180$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 75c | 173.29$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.92 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 173.04$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.5 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 163.12$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 151$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.78 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…878ebacked Yes | 42c | 138.52$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.74 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 74c | 135.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 130$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 26c | 125.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.22 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 24c | 122.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.15 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 25c | 119.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +157.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 21c | 119.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 60c | 118.62$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 43c | 115$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 13c | 110.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 104.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 65c | 87.16$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 19c | 78.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 30c | 78.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.34 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 74.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 37c | 68.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 68.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 64.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 34c | 59.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 59.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 28c | 59.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 35c | 58.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d5…d80abacked No | 69c | 56.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes | 30c | 54.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 54.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f9…168abacked Yes | 63c | 53.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 52.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 30c | 52.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 39c | 51.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 38c | 51.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +40%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 26c | 50.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…1d32backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked Yes | 23c | 48.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +340.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 21c | 48.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 36c | 47.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 46.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 37c | 45.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 80c | 43.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9575backed Yes | 24c | 41.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd926…e9cebacked No | 74c | 40.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 69c | 40.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b76…3a40backed Yes | 66c | 39.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 72c | 39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 38.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 74c | 35.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 34.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 56c | 32.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 38c | 30.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 72c | 30.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 53c | 29.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…9109backed No | 78c | 29.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 73c | 28.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 49c | 28.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 48c | 25.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ca…59eebacked No | 47c | 24.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 43c | 23.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 53c | 23.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…441fbacked No | 77c | 22.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 78c | 22.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 66c | 22.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 69c | 22.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb280…daefbacked No | 70c | 22.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf7…ebeabacked No | 70c | 21.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 62c | 20.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 20.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 64c | 17.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 64c | 17.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 66c | 16.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 15.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 70c | 14.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C or below on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.