TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,902
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,509

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,902 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbec…808bbacked Yes49c1,001$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.817623.7%18 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No55c378.16$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.6740648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No54c317.63$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.2321844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes30c258.64$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4339231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes42c236.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.723243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No55c220.06$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.3913357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes35c198.87$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.527741.6%32 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes47c190.56$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.433531.4%11 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No54c186$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.4939952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No53c183.17$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.455223.1%12 W · 40 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7515…0d06backed No61c174.72$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.06540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No54c171.61$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.4512055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked No62c160.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.51225%3 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-55.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No57c155.22$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.117353.4%39 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x01a9…75ddbacked No78c141.39$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.391747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes39c140.83$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3518342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes45c130$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.34240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No60c128.53$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.023551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes36c124.72$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4612816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd92f…acacbacked Yes12c119.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.42433.3%8 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+62.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes48c118.45$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.138236.6%30 W · 52 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x515f…a606backed No61c110$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-35.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7510030%30 W · 70 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes20c99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5423044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaddf…b8febacked No62c96.77$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.772254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes37c94.43$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5944138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes40c94$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0280%0 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe684…da82backed No57c88.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.22683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+28.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No50c87.35$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4921854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No53c84.89$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5213155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No56c74.78$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0315558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes45c70$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.710733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c16…d262backed No73c68.96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.96683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick65cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No59c68.45$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9334354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No51c66.24$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.435054%27 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No53c64$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.136055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes50c62.64$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.573240.6%13 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No68c61.08$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.65383%44 W · 9 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes42c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4416738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No66c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.46556.9%37 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes45c60$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e44…2c35backed Yes45c59.21$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.411546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes48c58.22$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286333.3%21 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes46c58$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.659558.9%56 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0428…7d12backed Yes37c57.14$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.141145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes36c53.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4814827%40 W · 108 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd926…e9cebacked No57c51.92$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.19560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes38c51.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7244428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9b5…3925backed Yes50c50.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.33616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x186c…1d32backed Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.05540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf33c…488cbacked Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No58c48.03$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1714351.7%74 W · 69 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f17…bc44backed No55c45.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.641963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No56c45.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2616755.1%92 W · 75 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes46c45.35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.925536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f24…64b5backed No55c45.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.31353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+28.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x417f…d9a9backed Yes45c44.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205052%26 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes28c44.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.357129.6%21 W · 50 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0838…64f6backed Yes34c44.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No59c44$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0131152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked Yes46c43.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.211163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x282c…ddeabacked Yes48c41.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes49c40.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No43c39.53$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5316834.5%58 W · 110 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes44c39.29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2912040.8%49 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No57c38.42$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4914467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No56c37.5$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.58865.9%58 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No54c36.54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.923551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb280…daefbacked No53c36.47$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.24250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb8c…23c8backed No53c35.66$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.61366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x422a…dc4bbacked No57c34.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.113158.1%18 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No55c34.4$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4318035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cbe…e435backed Yes47c31.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No72c31.77$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.969160.4%55 W · 36 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No58c31.72$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1652850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed No54c31.26$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.412680.8%21 W · 5 L+5.5wins+0.21per pick60cpaid+42.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x07de…b9e2backed Yes53c30.46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.17425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-61.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed No53c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.21553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.86448.4%31 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.217345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0d2…05ccbacked Yes45c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes42c29.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.318638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb07…5b0fbacked No56c29.13$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.81683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick61cpaid+39.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe584…9157backed Yes39c28.87$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.332733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes44c26.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.764070%28 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+29.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x047b…83b1backed No50c26.46$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.121668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No52c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1218669.4%129 W · 57 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bb…264cbacked Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ca9…fe9cbacked No63c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.25944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa05f…0003backed Yes44c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115248.1%25 W · 27 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes45c24.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x152f…3cc3backed No67c24.01$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.921040%4 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-37.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes49c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.668438.1%32 W · 52 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x549c…100abacked Yes43c23.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102035%7 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.14963.3%31 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1342…c430backed No53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1026632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c19.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.48556.5%48 W · 37 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-10.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.