World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2a56177aae550af719b70265ff1e8e431b4ea8e429de2988bfc86ccccf5c657
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 49c | 1,001$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.81 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 378.16$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.67 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 54c | 317.63$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.23 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 258.64$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 42c | 236.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 55c | 220.06$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.39 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 35c | 198.87$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 47c | 190.56$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.43 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 186$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.49 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 53c | 183.17$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.45 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0d06backed No | 61c | 174.72$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 54c | 171.61$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.45 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked No | 62c | 160.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 57c | 155.22$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 78c | 141.39$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 39c | 140.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 45c | 130$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 60c | 128.53$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 36c | 124.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 12c | 119.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 48c | 118.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 61c | 110$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 94.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes | 40c | 94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe684…da82backed No | 57c | 88.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 87.35$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 53c | 84.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 56c | 74.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 73c | 68.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 65cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 68.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 51c | 66.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 50c | 62.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 68c | 61.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 53 | 83%44 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 45c | 59.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 48c | 58.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 46c | 58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 37c | 57.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 53.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd926…e9cebacked No | 57c | 51.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 51.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…3925backed Yes | 50c | 50.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…1d32backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 58c | 48.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…bc44backed No | 55c | 45.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 56c | 45.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 46c | 45.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 55c | 45.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 45c | 44.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 28c | 44.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 46c | 43.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 49c | 40.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 43c | 39.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 44c | 39.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 38.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 56c | 37.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 36.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb280…daefbacked No | 53c | 36.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 53c | 35.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 57c | 34.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 34.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 31.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 31.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 54c | 31.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x07de…b9e2backed Yes | 53c | 30.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…05ccbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 42c | 29.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 56c | 29.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 39c | 28.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 44c | 26.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 50c | 26.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bb…264cbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…fe9cbacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 45c | 24.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…3cc3backed No | 67c | 24.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…c430backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C or below on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.