TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,305
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,493

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,305 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa93…0bc7backed No4c979.96$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.63,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes77c718.71$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.7656048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes50c637$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.111,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No18c449.66$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.771,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No27c371.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5949543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f6a…eb61backed No57c335$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.510342.7%44 W · 59 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+121.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No35c328.71$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.552,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No50c271$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.54,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes55c218.18$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.1882742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ff3…eb39backed No36c209.93$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.57955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No24c160.25$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.534,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes65c154.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2219559.5%116 W · 79 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes44c150$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8427335.9%98 W · 175 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No22c143.49$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0195852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes53c142$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.582,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No39c139.65$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.929,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No39c136.79$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes63c127.97$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.972,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa03c…9a81backed Yes58c125.94$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.333441.2%14 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes42c120$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.691444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No45c101.68$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.977,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5695…60e9backed Yes49c101.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.819252.1%100 W · 92 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4823731.6%75 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes61c99.46$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.953,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No41c87.14$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3668867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes52c86.38$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.381,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No40c85$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.054,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes60c83.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.220452%106 W · 98 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes60c79$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.676,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No49c71.1$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.961,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecc8…9335backed Yes56c70$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.819260.9%117 W · 75 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.676046.7%28 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes50c66.08$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.794,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No19c63.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed No50c63$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6135063.1%221 W · 129 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes50c62.15$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1537144.2%164 W · 207 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No50c62$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No20c61.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.158422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No51c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.62,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes62c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.981855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No22c59.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.043,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No34c58.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2033350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes75c58.25$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6528742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x297a…3dd8backed No47c56.25$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.535040%20 W · 30 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No45c56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.055,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb26d…73f7backed Yes51c55$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.925261.9%156 W · 96 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes49c51.01$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.021,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65ce…6ff8backed No38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1919345.6%88 W · 105 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.521339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No40c49.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7776059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes55c45.69$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6910354.4%56 W · 47 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No24c45.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7486847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No48c45.08$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.754,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No48c43.13$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.744,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No41c41$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.982,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No44c41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0921268.4%145 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No50c35.41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.783,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes58c34.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4858138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8e7…b9a1backed No49c33.05$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-33.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43eb…3d85backed No50c32.64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.326046.7%28 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x471d…32cebacked Yes64c30.94$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1416656.6%94 W · 72 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x11b0…f988backed Yes64c30.94$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1415556.1%87 W · 68 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes49c30.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8152446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8552828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.549854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.13,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes58c25.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.924,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes58c25.76$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7661249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No49c25.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3141752%217 W · 200 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d17…32d8backed No42c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.513655.1%75 W · 61 L-13.4wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-17.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1987…1d94backed Yes60c24.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.838348.2%40 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c25…963dbacked Yes57c24.1$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.361361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+22.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a7f…c50abacked Yes58c23.45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.78944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2faa…26c2backed Yes58c22.88$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.612147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked No50c20.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0418247.3%86 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x500e…7c9abacked Yes53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.46357.1%36 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…a96dbacked Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1080962.1%502 W · 307 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfebb…09efbacked Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.615051.3%77 W · 73 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes55c19.48$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.771,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes63c15.89$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.885,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed Yes67c15.79$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.237465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.