MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x298e8f1d89c4714a4b63bdd26f56cd6adb19d27de6a6691260c4500c2dcf55e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Cleveland Guardians, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 80,931$37,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,228.45 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 26,160$14,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,033.6 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 14,579$7,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,671.71 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 14,309$7,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,581.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 10,000$5,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,600 | 338 | 52.7%178 W · 160 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 4,925$2,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,265.5 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 4,380$2,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,014.92 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 2,222$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.12 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 627$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.42 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 504.2$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.34 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 500$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.81 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 444$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.24 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 436.44$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.34 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 277.75$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.76 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 219.53$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.08 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 214$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.44 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 185$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 139.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 137.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 123$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…b6ffbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 101.76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +9.4wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…1e57backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 77.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 74.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 68.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Cleveland Guardians | 22c | 47.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 43.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 32.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 31.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed Cincinnati Reds | 72c | 27.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 70 | 80%56 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 26.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 23.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b43…e244backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 23.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 22.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0765…9e3fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 19.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.