MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c2b623fefe9a9a5982281933ad301e6b44b6b7db53cf9cf76acabd5b15535c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Under | 46c | 54,593$25,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,480.58 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 54c | 50,634$27,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,345.17 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 54c | 16,268$8,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,784.56 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 47c | 7,500$3,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,975 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…8409backed Under | 46c | 5,578$2,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,012.21 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 2,136$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153.44 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 48c | 1,444$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.88 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 1,145$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.26 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Under | 48c | 1,032$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.66 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | -19.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 52c | 1,024$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.48 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 52c | 992.04$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.86 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 43c | 800.98$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.42 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 47c | 670.14$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.17 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Over | 54c | 655.02$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.71 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 54c | 571.34$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.38 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 53c | 554.81$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.05 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 47c | 534.02$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.03 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 46c | 520.15$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.88 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 513.98$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.94 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 54c | 494.26$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.9 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 53c | 486.67$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.94 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 55c | 469.66$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.94 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 46c | 462$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.48 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 53c | 416.99$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.14 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 47c | 402.05$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.09 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 28c | 317.56$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.59 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 46c | 275.84$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.3 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 53c | 273.49$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.95 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 53c | 248$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.67 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 53c | 224.49$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.82 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 53c | 209.86$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.63 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Over | 54c | 156$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 54c | 148.16$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 53c | 99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 46c | 94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 54c | 74.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 54c | 69.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70e9…a9d5backed Under | 46c | 63.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Under | 47c | 54.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 80c | 43.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 47c | 27.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Over | 54c | 25.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Over | 55c | 22.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 54c | 21.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 58c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc09d…d110backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…b515backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae57…9d63backed Over | 54c | 18.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.