AI · resolved market
Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $11.0B?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b27a743f14f5b64bff3fea8e2b87f1453d9b9a761e6c4808e7ace6a96fec37d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 13c | 2,304$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,014.29 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked No | 13c | 1,409$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.39 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…5bc9backed No | 11c | 400$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 28c | 264.32$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.8 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 18c | 247$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.96 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 9c | 230.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.18 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed No | 45c | 220.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.35 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x684d…31b7backed Yes | 54c | 192.84$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…451ebacked Yes | 54c | 169.13$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…61e3backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +463.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 30c | 120$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 32c | 115$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.66 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 15c | 114.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.26 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…1db9backed Yes | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41b…36bebacked No | 18c | 61.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 60.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 37c | 56.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3535…75b2backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…8725backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…3895backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 22c | 46.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 53c | 39.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf5…e344backed Yes | 72c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b0…fcdebacked Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…323ebacked Yes | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $11.0B?this page
- Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $10.5B?Yes won
- Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $11.5B?No won
- Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $12.0B?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.