Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29df7c6c56902f0103478fe083456b989a132a2116d253f5553ceb266bd79f6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 35c | 2,127$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.77 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 36c | 1,722$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.39 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 42c | 1,192$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 19c | 803.2$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.07 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 65c | 798.56$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.88 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 54c | 742.17$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.83 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 77c | 741.43$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.54 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1826…c31ebacked Yes | 52c | 719.22$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 43c | 650.19$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.08 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 66c | 621.2$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.94 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf13a…5469backed Yes | 70c | 537.2$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 75cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 528.06$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.76 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 527.08$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.78 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 64c | 447.27$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.65 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 443.64$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 75c | 421.4$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.77 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 385.11$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.13 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked Yes | 31c | 318$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.37 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -58%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 312.88$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 47c | 304.66$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.27 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 64c | 300$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 271$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 39c | 266.07$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.34 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 16c | 249.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 247$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.72 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 224$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.63 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 34c | 221.39$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.49 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 31c | 221.31$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.76 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 69c | 208.03$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.49 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…faeebacked No | 41c | 204.76$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.83 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 42c | 202.36$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.21 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 64c | 200$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 64c | 200$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 31c | 193.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 192.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 55c | 181.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 174.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.37 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 68c | 172$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 64c | 169.89$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.42 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…b0c7backed Yes | 23c | 157.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +193.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 34c | 140.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 135.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 70c | 131$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 32c | 129.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.9 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Yes | 23c | 129.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed No | 70c | 126$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 75c | 125.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.93 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 74c | 121.12$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.79 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 65c | 120.44$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 49c | 116.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 59c | 115.79$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ab…c964backed No | 71c | 115.29$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 79c | 115$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 69c | 111.45$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 54c | 111.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 52c | 106.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 64c | 106.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 105$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 102.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 54c | 101.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 48c | 99.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 97.91$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 95.45$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 94.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 53c | 92.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 61c | 90.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 49c | 90.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 49c | 90.09$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 87.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 41c | 85.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 83.32$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 27c | 81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 38c | 80.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 64c | 77.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…eb84backed Yes | 69c | 74.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354b…ff6cbacked Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 55c | 68.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 40c | 68.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 20c | 68.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 44c | 67.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…3dd8backed No | 71c | 66.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…c258backed Yes | 59c | 65.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…144dbacked No | 53c | 64.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -19.6wins | -0.33per pick | 59cpaid | -61%equal weight | 24-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 42c | 60.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 27c | 59.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 33c | 57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 53c | 54.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 51c | 52.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 57c | 50.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 48c | 49.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 28c | 48.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or below on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.