Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f5ac948c31432d2765cd339620c6ce109a110b4a1d046cb600c024ba08cb931
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 43c | 1,089$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.43 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 15c | 999.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.99 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 77c | 886.12$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.68 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 41c | 738.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.71 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 35c | 663.54$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.26 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 46c | 649.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.04 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 41c | 645.05$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.02 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 39c | 543.92$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.21 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 53c | 476.02$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.49 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 474.19$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.76 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 443.65$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 62c | 319.96$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.07 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 316.17$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.1 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 33c | 300$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.33 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 15c | 283.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…eb84backed Yes | 74c | 268.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b9…90d0backed No | 11c | 267$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 48c | 243.37$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.54 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 12c | 236.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.55 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 234.14$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 32c | 228.25$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.25 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 211.37$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.52 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 43c | 205.47$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.12 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 72c | 204.98$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.59 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 26c | 192.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.42 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 53c | 182.32$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.39 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 177.9$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.83 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fe…b32dbacked No | 65c | 173.93$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 170$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 169.44$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 77c | 165.77$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.13 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 21c | 164.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 61c | 154.77$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.87 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.92 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 32c | 148.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.38 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 47c | 145.65$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.43 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 37c | 127.36$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.03 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 61c | 110.3$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 28c | 110.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.38 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 105$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 26c | 102.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.71 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 98.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1826…c31ebacked Yes | 29c | 98.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.76 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 98.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.47 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 64c | 96.75$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 29c | 96.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.32 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x078b…edd2backed Yes | 43c | 87.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 83.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 83.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 45c | 83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 23c | 83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354b…ff6cbacked Yes | 48c | 82.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 36c | 81.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 78.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 62c | 76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 63c | 76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 34c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 18c | 72.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…3dd8backed Yes | 30c | 67.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 71c | 67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 50c | 63.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 17c | 63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 33c | 61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 69c | 60.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ccefbacked Yes | 77c | 60.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 43c | 59.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 55c | 59.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 54c | 59.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 50c | 59.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 57.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 46c | 56.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 46c | 56.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 64c | 55.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 47c | 53.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 29c | 51.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 57c | 49.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 79c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 45c | 44.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 49c | 43.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 42.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 41.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 40c | 38.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 47c | 36.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 62c | 34.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 67c | 33.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…ee28backed No | 65c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 62c | 32.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 71c | 31.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 54c | 31.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or below on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.