TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on August 6?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,693
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,812

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,693 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes5c1,000$50 inLost-$49.9221829.4%64 W · 154 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5337…b0c7backed Yes9c960.06$91 inLost-$90.55617.9%10 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+193.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes7c959.49$63 inLost-$63.311,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes11c817.04$89 inLost-$88.744,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes4c565.15$23 inLost-$23.2910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes13c562.9$73 inLost-$72.8790040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8e22…3061backed Yes9c532.14$47 inLost-$46.5238515.6%60 W · 325 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+93.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes12c393.18$47 inLost-$46.611,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2160…4c78backed Yes8c364.8$28 inLost-$28.346817.6%12 W · 56 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick23cpaid+60.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes9c241.09$23 inLost-$22.531,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes8c239.07$19 inLost-$19.112,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes18c194.93$35 inLost-$35.4423241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes9c192.37$17 inLost-$16.583,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes11c174.26$19 inLost-$18.5312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes13c167.02$21 inLost-$21.331,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes9c158.69$14 inLost-$14.2646626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1201…005bbacked Yes8c145.19$11 inLost-$11.251679.6%16 W · 151 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e1…c152backed Yes12c129.07$15 inLost-$15.2120231.2%63 W · 139 L+22.2wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+13.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeeb3…2bb6backed Yes12c122.06$15 inLost-$14.651947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes15c100$15 inLost-$157413.5%10 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda07…62a0backed Yes11c96.66$11 inLost-$10.7120133.3%67 W · 134 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8fd…e7dcbacked Yes14c73.43$10 inLost-$10.282147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No71c16.89$12 inWon+$4.991861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.