Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x678594796711665901012bd71bb5536cd9c5bf1dbd77d9a8b40b14b3c0f7b8aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 34c | 1,294$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.18 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 4c | 952.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 43c | 853.32$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.61 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 758.23$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 39c | 535.19$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.19 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 5c | 464.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 38c | 459.8$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.64 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 395.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 38c | 383.3$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.38 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 365.16$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.44 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 37c | 278.11$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.87 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 39c | 249.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.71 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 223.01$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.06 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 58c | 209.83$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.01 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 53c | 190.32$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.54 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 190$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 165$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.95 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 163$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.52 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 39c | 151.05$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 40c | 150.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.92 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 19c | 132.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 50c | 128.26$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 125.56$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.66 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 41c | 119.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 110.62$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 41c | 109$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.41 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 65c | 106.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 101.05$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 73c | 101$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.38 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed No | 72c | 99.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 59c | 98.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.04 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 74c | 97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 96$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 27c | 88.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.63 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 83.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 62c | 78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 46c | 76.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 71.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 71.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 71c | 68.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 23c | 65.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 37c | 59.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 57.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 44c | 50.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe53…99a6backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 37c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 61c | 49.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 28c | 47.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 39c | 46.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 39c | 46.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 37c | 43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked No | 35c | 42.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c87…7165backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 52c | 38.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 65c | 38.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 59c | 38.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 64c | 37.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 48c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 59c | 36.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718b…1bf2backed Yes | 38c | 36.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 56c | 35.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 35c | 35.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 32c | 34.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 66c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 31c | 33.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 34c | 33.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…517ebacked Yes | 69c | 31.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed No | 33c | 31.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 48c | 31.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 52c | 30.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…b875backed Yes | 42c | 30.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 30.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 48c | 29.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 34c | 29.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9428…5cecbacked Yes | 37c | 28.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf444…8d4abacked No | 72c | 27.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 54c | 24.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.