Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x747f541eb92dc8ca976a0ad52321610a6ca465380acaf6b81bfaa59c749bc761
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 41c | 808.8$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 53c | 514.94$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.85 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 56c | 478.92$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.26 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 476.83$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 40c | 399.99$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.99 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 43c | 332.29$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.34 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 310$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 250$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 236.79$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.77 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 221.21$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ba…a792backed Yes | 53c | 187.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 185$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.17 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 42c | 180.28$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 24c | 178.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 40c | 176.65$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.66 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 58c | 169.35$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.13 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 166.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 42c | 166.59$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 50c | 161$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 43c | 155.51$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked No | 69c | 148.7$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 55c | 136.24$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 133.69$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.67 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 16c | 128.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 125.31$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 123.2$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 38c | 122.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9742…e412backed Yes | 43c | 118.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 44c | 108.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 59c | 100.61$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2660…afa2backed No | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 43c | 84.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa430…7105backed No | 61c | 82.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 58c | 78.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 77.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 46c | 76.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 27c | 74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 36c | 72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 73c | 71.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 59c | 70.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 74c | 67.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked Yes | 45c | 65.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 46c | 61.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 78c | 59.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 40c | 55.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 51.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked No | 76c | 51.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 56c | 51.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 54c | 50.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 46.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 43c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 45c | 43.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 57c | 43.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 59c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 41c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 57c | 42.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed No | 71c | 41.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 54c | 36.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 36.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 41c | 35.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 40c | 35.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 38c | 34.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 39c | 31.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Yes | 42c | 29.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 47cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 72c | 25.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 66c | 25.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 52c | 24.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718b…1bf2backed Yes | 53c | 23.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…fcbdbacked Yes | 50c | 23.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 69c | 20.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 17.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 62c | 17.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.