MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69f3bf72828a011816d9d4f967e1561416cc6e893e261c35109551bc2afe0e93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 56c | 75,315$42,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,214.7 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 43c | 36,633$15,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,746.56 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 10,222$4,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,920.54 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Over | 38c | 7,379$2,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,769.35 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 47c | 6,143$2,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,887.32 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Over | 49c | 3,695$1,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,810.43 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 59c | 2,366$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.22 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 44c | 2,016$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.82 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 45c | 1,890$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.28 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 1,560$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.56 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 1,316$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.04 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 53c | 1,185$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.2 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 77c | 962.79$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.72 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 918.63$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.01 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 52c | 866.5$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.79 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 41c | 790.41$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.94 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 57c | 580.93$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.8 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 50c | 517$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.67 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 41c | 446.89$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.18 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Over | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 44c | 297.53$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.25 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Over | 41c | 280$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 57c | 279.07$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 57c | 275$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.25 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 39c | 247.42$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.21 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Over | 43c | 209.3$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 45c | 143.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.41 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 40c | 125.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Under | 55c | 125.33$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 27c | 118$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.14 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 34c | 111.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 45c | 92.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 43c | 92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 47c | 66.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 44c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Over | 63c | 63.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Over | 43c | 62.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba56…10e8backed Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 38c | 52.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…90a8backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 160 | 57.5%92 W · 68 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 41c | 41.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Over | 33c | 40.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e0…3741backed Over | 44c | 40.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Over | 51c | 39.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Over | 39c | 36.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Over | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 52c | 34.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Over | 43c | 32.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2411…d620backed Over | 64c | 30.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Over | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…23fabacked Under | 53c | 20.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.