CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Just Players (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07ae20f293bf367ee5790987cdec320a75dc642a1592ef84232ab5f561c6e430
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuclear TigeRESof Nuclear TigeRES, Just Players
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Just Players | 29c | 3,049$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.19 | 495 | 36.4%180 W · 315 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Nuclear TigeRES | 71c | 2,400$1,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nuclear TigeRES | 78c | 2,117$1,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.96 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Just Players | 27c | 1,664$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.64 | 1,411 | 33.7%475 W · 936 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcd…0a69backed Nuclear TigeRES | 74c | 1,476$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.74 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30c7…ac3bbacked Nuclear TigeRES | 69c | 1,303$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.97 | 756 | 52.6%398 W · 358 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed Just Players | 30c | 1,262$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.94 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked Just Players | 15c | 1,200$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 946 | 45.8%433 W · 513 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bc…decabacked Just Players | 28c | 1,074$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.19 | 192 | 29.2%56 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…76ebbacked Just Players | 29c | 1,020$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 526 | 36.5%192 W · 334 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…4f76backed Just Players | 6c | 794.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 519 | 42.2%219 W · 300 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5592…aedebacked Nuclear TigeRES | 70c | 714.87$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.87 | 193 | 57%110 W · 83 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Just Players | 27c | 674.13$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.36 | 1,579 | 29.7%469 W · 1,110 L | -86.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Just Players | 29c | 635.32$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.68 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…42dcbacked Just Players | 15c | 575.18$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.06 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Just Players | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 758 | 33.4%253 W · 505 L | -48.9wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…016abacked Just Players | 30c | 499.49$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.3 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ec…c574backed Nuclear TigeRES | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 483 | 50.9%246 W · 237 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…6158backed Nuclear TigeRES | 71c | 364.98$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.85 | 380 | 52.6%200 W · 180 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…2f08backed Just Players | 29c | 345.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 158 | 46.8%74 W · 84 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…a5c9backed Just Players | 29c | 343.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…ac54backed Just Players | 15c | 330.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd68d…1f62backed Just Players | 30c | 329.96$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Nuclear TigeRES | 70c | 324.54$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.36 | 611 | 54.7%334 W · 277 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Just Players | 23c | 312.96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 1,319 | 44.2%583 W · 736 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Nuclear TigeRES | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 991 | 48.3%479 W · 512 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…4389backed Nuclear TigeRES | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 375 | 57.3%215 W · 160 L | -16.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…ed83backed Nuclear TigeRES | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nuclear TigeRES | 78c | 294.42$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Just Players | 13c | 256.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 694 | 45%312 W · 382 L | -24.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…88f9backed Nuclear TigeRES | 72c | 232.41$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.08 | 470 | 54%254 W · 216 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Just Players | 27c | 231.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 421 | 54.6%230 W · 191 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…6c15backed Just Players | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7129…4517backed Just Players | 27c | 185$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 1,076 | 37.6%405 W · 671 L | +34.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed Just Players | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 26.4%28 W · 78 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…f4a0backed Just Players | 30c | 167.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 838 | 56.1%470 W · 368 L | +31.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Just Players | 29c | 143.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cf…2224backed Nuclear TigeRES | 73c | 137.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 225 | 67.1%151 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Just Players | 29c | 124.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…b60ebacked Nuclear TigeRES | 73c | 122.62$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 324 | 58%188 W · 136 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Just Players | 16c | 117.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x54ac…47e6backed Nuclear TigeRES | 78c | 115.97$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 673 | 72.2%486 W · 187 L | +119.1wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6928…1075backed Just Players | 11c | 104.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x203a…935fbacked Nuclear TigeRES | 73c | 102.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 284 | 54.9%156 W · 128 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Just Players | 28c | 100.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Nuclear TigeRES | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 677 | 50.2%340 W · 337 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…3bb0backed Just Players | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 557 | 49.7%277 W · 280 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Just Players | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Just Players | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Nuclear TigeRES | 65c | 98.39$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef0…88abbacked Just Players | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Just Players | 19c | 77.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1273…8eddbacked Nuclear TigeRES | 70c | 75.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Just Players | 30c | 71.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…9da3backed Nuclear TigeRES | 77c | 70.32$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 1,008 | 69.3%699 W · 309 L | +152.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Nuclear TigeRES | 71c | 65.49$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Nuclear TigeRES | 70c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Nuclear TigeRES | 80c | 51.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Nuclear TigeRES | 79c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Just Players | 24c | 42.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8818…f8acbacked Nuclear TigeRES | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 166 | 60.8%101 W · 65 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…645cbacked Nuclear TigeRES | 70c | 38.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Just Players | 30c | 37.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,618 | 46.8%758 W · 860 L | -28.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6d…ab76backed Nuclear TigeRES | 71c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 338 | 49.7%168 W · 170 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked Nuclear TigeRES | 71c | 30.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 512 | 52.1%267 W · 245 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Nuclear TigeRES | 71c | 28.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 378 | 48.1%182 W · 196 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…98cabacked Nuclear TigeRES | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Nuclear TigeRES | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Nuclear TigeRES | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 488 | 51.8%253 W · 235 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…8f24backed Nuclear TigeRES | 71c | 23.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x944b…754fbacked Nuclear TigeRES | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 67cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3637…21a4backed Nuclear TigeRES | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Nuclear TigeRES | 77c | 20.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 368 | 56.8%209 W · 159 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Nuclear TigeRES | 71c | 19.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 325 | 54.8%178 W · 147 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ea…15cbbacked Nuclear TigeRES | 71c | 18.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Nuclear TigeRES | 70c | 16.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 186 | 63.4%118 W · 68 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Nuclear TigeRES | 74c | 15.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 422 | 55.7%235 W · 187 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Nuclear TigeRES | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Just Players (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Just Players - Map 1 WinnerNuclear TigeRES won
- Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Just Players - Map 2 WinnerNuclear TigeRES won
- Map Handicap: NTR (-1.5) vs Just Players (+1.5)Nuclear TigeRES won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.