Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71f77a17910b6d896ee76326d806ebe3ed3e82176a2fb5f9d6b46a6ab3187dad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 66c | 832.79$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.78 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 46c | 652.13$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 52c | 566.75$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.04 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 39c | 507.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes | 54c | 506.96$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.96 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 40c | 481.02$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.37 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 75c | 391.37$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.47 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 3c | 379.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 336.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 47c | 267$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 40c | 255.81$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.95 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 61c | 218.43$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.37 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 60c | 199.3$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.09 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 195.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed No | 37c | 180.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 48c | 161.44$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.48 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked No | 17c | 122.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 49c | 119.41$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.41 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 115$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 103.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 97.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 53c | 89.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 44c | 80.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 51c | 78.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 53c | 69.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 63c | 64.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 42c | 64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 59.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 46c | 58.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4ca8backed Yes | 74c | 50.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 48.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Yes | 80c | 43.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 43.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 57c | 41.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 40c | 40.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 39c | 40.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 74 | 70.3%52 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 42c | 40.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 59c | 38.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 38c | 38.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 44c | 36.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff3…eb39backed No | 50c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 43c | 34.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 58c | 34.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 56c | 32.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 52c | 31.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 58c | 29.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 48c | 26.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 60c | 25.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d2…35a6backed Yes | 40c | 25.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 47c | 24.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 48c | 23.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…1211backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 56c | 18.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 75c | 16.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.