MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4a3aab8c10e42b47c2bcf1adf62d63c1087077622d2fcd41de4d9e6cd985c3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 54c | 4,199$2,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,945.88 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 46c | 1,767$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.04 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 47c | 1,058$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.85 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 38c | 1,038$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.99 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe459…737dbacked Under | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 47c | 709.38$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.96 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 40c | 513$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.43 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 48c | 473.67$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.1 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 47c | 455.53$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.43 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 47c | 438.17$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.94 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 55c | 428.78$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.92 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 35c | 398.33$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.92 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 51c | 365.36$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.33 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 66c | 266.79$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.71 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Over | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 62c | 162.81$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.68 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 51c | 140$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 54c | 130.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.1 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 56c | 125.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 59c | 98.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Over | 57c | 98.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Over | 41c | 95.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.03 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 65c | 87.79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 61c | 81.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Over | 41c | 64.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 57.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 36c | 55.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 58c | 54.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Over | 38c | 49.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 47c | 25.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…bc14backed Under | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 60c | 22.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Under | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota TwinsLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.