MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30f04cab5b1c8992783204776d1ba22d51f1688357d1424252e1592df2e077a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Los Angeles Dodgers, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 70c | 19,439$13,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,679.21 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 29c | 14,038$4,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,966.98 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 8,002$4,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,843.6 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Minnesota Twins | 50c | 6,113$3,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,056.5 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins | 45c | 3,264$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,467.57 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…2f68backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 29c | 2,855$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,027.05 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 67c | 1,897$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.12 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…a1d3backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 29c | 1,706$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,207.02 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 28c | 1,407$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.04 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 71c | 1,300$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.98 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Minnesota Twins | 49c | 831.75$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.46 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 52c | 536.62$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.63 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…75b3backed Minnesota Twins | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 55c | 473.88$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.4 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 29c | 455.17$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.17 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Minnesota Twins | 71c | 419.98$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.19 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 29c | 413.79$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.79 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Minnesota Twins | 71c | 299.99$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.99 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 271.69$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.94 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Minnesota Twins | 48c | 222.62$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.83 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 208.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.32 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 208.31$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.29 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 32c | 204.79$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.9 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Minnesota Twins | 35c | 195.61$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…7fecbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 178.07$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.33 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Minnesota Twins | 71c | 140$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Minnesota Twins | 72c | 137.08$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 134$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.85 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Minnesota Twins | 74c | 125.58$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.46 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 29c | 120.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Minnesota Twins | 71c | 120$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Minnesota Twins | 74c | 119.43$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.27 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Minnesota Twins | 20c | 114.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 27c | 112.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 106.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Minnesota Twins | 47c | 96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 28c | 90.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.41 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Minnesota Twins | 64c | 87.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Minnesota Twins | 29c | 81.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Minnesota Twins | 71c | 69.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 65.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 46c | 65.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 59c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…cda7backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 61.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Minnesota Twins | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 58c | 53.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 34c | 50.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Minnesota Twins | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x982c…0d6ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 29c | 45.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 45.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Minnesota Twins | 71c | 38.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 34.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 46c | 28.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5b…3b06backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Minnesota Twins | 65c | 19.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota TwinsLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.