MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x701864038c930a2a5fd7da816b0f2de9da2ae00bdaf0745242e597a9ca44e189
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 53c | 38,022$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,021.53 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 25,521$12,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,153.66 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 6,461$3,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,054.97 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 5,558$2,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,545.19 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 57c | 4,160$2,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,371.2 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 43c | 3,333$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,899.81 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 48c | 1,006$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.51 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 43c | 674.54$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.49 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…f0bfbacked Over | 52c | 462.96$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.22 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 51c | 461.86$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.01 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…f31dbacked Over | 52c | 379.46$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.14 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 299.61$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.96 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 61c | 246.67$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.44 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Over | 52c | 231.4$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.07 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec11…953fbacked Under | 42c | 191.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 31c | 184$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…989fbacked Over | 43c | 165.24$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.19 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 43c | 150$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 38c | 119.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.81 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 43c | 115.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.63 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 54c | 114.05$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 55c | 103.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36dd…bfccbacked Over | 52c | 93.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Under | 17c | 91.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe3…a9f7backed Under | 63c | 67.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Under | 58c | 65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 43c | 64.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 65c | 57.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 41c | 50.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…2775backed Under | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -6.9wins | -0.28per pick | 52cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5b…3b06backed Under | 49c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…5f54backed Under | 62c | 41.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…f3c5backed Over | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 43c | 37.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 35c | 36.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4740…fa66backed Over | 54c | 36.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Under | 48c | 32.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…3144backed Over | 74c | 32.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed Over | 63c | 31.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 42c | 30.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Under | 38c | 27.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Over | 43c | 25.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Under | 57c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 50c | 22.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 62c | 20.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf47f…15adbacked Under | 57c | 20.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota TwinsLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.