MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d5d662cac870a9e0c47d42524a95c105b5fd221589867675ebda296eb2f488f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 16,711$9,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,101.59 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 44c | 8,051$3,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,468.53 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 44c | 5,400$2,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,002 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 52c | 4,533$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,340.05 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 4,096$1,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,252.8 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 54c | 3,742$2,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,017.46 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 55c | 3,489$1,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,903.96 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 46c | 2,753$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.3 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 2,518$1,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,369.72 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 57c | 2,384$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.78 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 46c | 2,212$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.4 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 2,202$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.24 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Over | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.65 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | -19.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 70c | 2,127$1,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.33 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 55c | 1,832$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.8 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 1,777$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.15 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 54c | 1,634$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.2 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 53c | 1,352$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.65 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 58c | 1,208$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.57 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 27c | 1,060$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.84 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 36c | 915.21$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.76 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Under | 18c | 792$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.72 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc306…accdbacked Over | 48c | 719.29$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.03 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +9.7wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 630.36$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…c9aebacked Under | 50c | 607.86$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.38 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 62c | 504$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.94 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 57c | 501$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.57 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 422$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.73 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…dc4dbacked Under | 55c | 363.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 68c | 339.23$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.48 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 46c | 300.2$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.78 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 43c | 269.17$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.69 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Over | 51c | 263.98$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.35 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Under | 51c | 205.2$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.65 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Over | 49c | 204$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.04 | 112 | 58%65 W · 47 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 56c | 190.17$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.18 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 55c | 189.51$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.48 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 185.58$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.22 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked Over | 45c | 111$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a56…c6e0backed Under | 50c | 96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 31c | 85.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 779 | 52.1%406 W · 373 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 58c | 77.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over | 45c | 64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 43c | 59.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Over | 45c | 58.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 60c | 56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Over | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 58c | 54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 731 | 43.4%317 W · 414 L | -15.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 62c | 50.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 63c | 49.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 73c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 70c | 42.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 64c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 74c | 32.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 55c | 32.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 49c | 30.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 73c | 29.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Over | 71c | 25.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Over | 63c | 25.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 63c | 25.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Over | 63c | 23.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a46…2482backed Under | 56c | 22.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 65c | 20.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 70c | 17.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.