MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67db3fce7dc6f83be24e1d9c63cf47464d25c5cfef862bc63a0b7701e188b2ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 65c | 2,857$1,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,853.64 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 40c | 1,885$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.92 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 35c | 1,272$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.61 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 1,182$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.62 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 35c | 960$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.39 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…c9aebacked Under | 60c | 750.02$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.8 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 56c | 729.7$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.51 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 40c | 618$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.58 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 480.32$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.86 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 41c | 320.05$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.03 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 22c | 303$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 48c | 288.02$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.77 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…796bbacked Under | 57c | 275$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.25 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Under | 63c | 274.6$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 255.12$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.11 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 44c | 212.64$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.06 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 22c | 197$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 69c | 145.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 66c | 89$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under | 46c | 77.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 63c | 77.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Over | 49c | 40.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 65c | 26.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 50c | 25.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 63c | 25.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 44c | 22.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.