Earnings · resolved market
Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0a568643af8ef72532e0562c199a335e997df697f9ae64b3474747dea5e9942
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 15c | 3,000$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,300$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed No | 80c | 1,915$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.25 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7db…6129backed Yes | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe056…8120backed No | 76c | 1,094$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.87 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…5d91backed Yes | 25c | 525.25$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed1…a782backed Yes | 12c | 319.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 21c | 285.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 141 | 71.6%101 W · 40 L | +22.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 17c | 262.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked Yes | 25c | 248.83$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 12c | 195$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b28…a0b7backed Yes | 9c | 165$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 122.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad12…b115backed Yes | 14c | 113.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 170 | 64.1%109 W · 61 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb918…0158backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 12.9%9 W · 61 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Yes | 19c | 77.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1301…2cf7backed Yes | 21c | 71.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55f…0f76backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked Yes | 19c | 68.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1a…7454backed Yes | 19c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 38.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049c…a244backed Yes | 62c | 21.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.