MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69ae384a193fc00c9d6ad9b7c1ba68fc4829629a0887049f5265054722fa483f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked San Diego Padres | 39c | 55,555$21,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,888.53 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 22,263$13,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,580.43 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 13,723$8,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,370.88 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 9,494$5,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,787.58 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 6,000$3,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,660 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked San Diego Padres | 39c | 2,309$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408.49 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 2,200$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 1,128$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.56 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 988$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.68 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 984.53$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.5 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 702.75$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.68 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 601.01$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.61 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 600$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 600$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 20c | 590.75$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.93 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 578.95$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.95 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 573.47$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.42 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 53c | 548.45$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.08 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 445.26$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.61 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…6f88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 444.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 422.2$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.76 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 400$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 397$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.17 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 355.09$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.09 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed San Diego Padres | 50c | 344$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.05 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 303.83$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.03 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 238$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.56 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 235.59$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.71 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 217.81$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.87 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Diego Padres | 55c | 213.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.69 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 30c | 188.68$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 160.8$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked San Diego Padres | 76c | 121.67$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 118.55$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 99.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 99.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 98.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4db…e401backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 22c | 91.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…03acbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 83.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…6aaabacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 73.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 72.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 66.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 63.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 61.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked San Diego Padres | 67c | 55.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 125 | 75.2%94 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 54.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed San Diego Padres | 50c | 53.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 45.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked San Diego Padres | 49c | 33.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 31.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…781ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 30.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked San Diego Padres | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33c4…85c2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 24.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…b370backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 24.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 195 | 55.9%109 W · 86 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 23.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 22.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 16.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.