TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,838
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,869

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,838 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres37c5,159$1,931 inWon+$3,227.8811,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x689f…259cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks63c5,094$3,209 inLost-$3,209.3710241.2%42 W · 60 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+2.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres46c109$50 inWon+$59.168,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Arizona Diamondbacks49c98.9$48 inLost-$48.4233352.3%174 W · 159 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x402a…624fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks51c95.61$48 inLost-$48.4922949.8%114 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked San Diego Padres52c69.23$36 inWon+$33.2348445.9%222 W · 262 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27ea…863dbacked San Diego Padres36c69.15$25 inWon+$44.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+178.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e96…33c9backed Arizona Diamondbacks34c58.82$20 inLost-$203826.3%10 W · 28 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-37.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks43c46.27$20 inLost-$19.7310,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e89…2e8ebacked San Diego Padres72c41.67$30 inWon+$11.672564%16 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2638…8e2dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks61c34.39$21 inLost-$21.0313252.3%69 W · 63 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks58c33.57$20 inLost-$19.568,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks64c32.34$21 inLost-$20.712,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07f1…3b8ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks70c28.57$20 inLost-$207263.9%46 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.