MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadec666bc449c8a25e110d8267a8ba000485758703e28e41905120ca29706881
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 4,487$1,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,505.41 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 34c | 2,781$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.59 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 59c | 2,367$1,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.36 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 1,833$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.72 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfc…bf06backed Over | 57c | 1,814$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.98 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa90…c709backed Over | 56c | 1,729$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.97 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 30c | 1,580$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.17 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc279…6465backed Under | 44c | 1,276$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.56 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8840…f51abacked Over | 2c | 1,087$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 41c | 1,005$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.66 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 35c | 818.88$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.68 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…a55abacked Under | 40c | 799.98$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb68…4ef3backed Under | 45c | 764.44$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.44 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbac…38d0backed Over | 59c | 762.26$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.73 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 40c | 755.3$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.12 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 45c | 725.74$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.27 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 46c | 588.79$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.8 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 39c | 499.57$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.79 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 54c | 464.09$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.61 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over | 56c | 448.34$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Over | 35c | 385.71$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 31c | 365.95$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.27 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 58c | 333.99$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.25 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x835c…c014backed Under | 62c | 317.84$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.16 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8b…646dbacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 45c | 219.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.75 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed Under | 45c | 219.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.75 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 34c | 215.48$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.19 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…b21cbacked Over | 68c | 213.57$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.18 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…44d6backed Over | 68c | 212.82$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.72 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 56c | 200.08$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.04 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…3bb3backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…5de7backed Under | 64c | 196.28$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 56c | 168.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…2413backed Over | 57c | 168.7$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 55c | 136.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.26 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Under | 45c | 117.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Over | 34c | 117.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 34c | 109.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b13…37dbbacked Under | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 58c | 95.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 53c | 94.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Under | 51c | 93.27$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 35c | 92.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | -11.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5de…33b5backed Over | 57c | 86.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 85.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 44c | 82.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Over | 57c | 81.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 53c | 72.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 44c | 63.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 54c | 62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 54.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Under | 48c | 49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 58c | 48.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 58c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Over | 53c | 47.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 49c | 37.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 54c | 31.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 56c | 31.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 54c | 25.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 57c | 21.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Over | 57c | 20.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 60c | 19.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 58c | 19.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Under | 64c | 19.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.