MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3a73e3c073254f926fb351cd935bd00ddd38da652393c6d5ba15ea740740b9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 52c | 45,756$23,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,976.06 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 34,936$18,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,497.67 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Under | 54c | 30,000$16,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,799.98 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 48c | 16,343$7,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,490.51 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 46c | 15,103$6,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,944.24 | 1,681 | 50.1%842 W · 839 L | -22.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 46c | 12,226$5,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,608.88 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 35c | 6,584$2,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,336.14 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 46c | 5,059$2,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,327.14 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Under | 54c | 4,573$2,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,103.58 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…a55abacked Under | 51c | 3,422$1,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,676.78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 2,467$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.19 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 55c | 2,126$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.92 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…fa78backed Under | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.11 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…4ccabacked Under | 53c | 1,971$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 1,784$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.93 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 45c | 1,347$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.98 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 47c | 1,201$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.26 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Over | 46c | 1,064$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.36 | 169 | 47.9%81 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 54c | 1,030$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.83 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 41c | 1,016$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.26 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 53c | 1,011$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.88 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 45c | 1,005$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.25 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked Over | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 380 | 57.4%218 W · 162 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 49c | 634.48$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.19 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 54c | 598$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.49 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 54c | 585$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.1 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 46c | 569$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.74 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Under | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 11c | 470$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Over | 46c | 425.52$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.74 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedde…5db2backed Over | 46c | 425.52$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.74 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Over | 35c | 355.21$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.05 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 20c | 338$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.58 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 46c | 312.93$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.19 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…60c8backed Over | 46c | 231.3$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Under | 49c | 224$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.44 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 58c | 195.62$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.16 | 2,044 | 39.5%808 W · 1,236 L | -24.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 16c | 188$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 58c | 165.63$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.86 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 50c | 165$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…2e8ebacked Under | 62c | 161.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.61 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 47c | 150.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Over | 46c | 134.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…4b73backed Over | 21c | 130.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 32c | 124.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 532 | 38.5%205 W · 327 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6add…6992backed Over | 52c | 121.15$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 65c | 117.14$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Under | 58c | 98.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 333 | 52.3%174 W · 159 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e3…b615backed Under | 55c | 96.36$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 45c | 92.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Under | 63c | 89.43$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Under | 66c | 88.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b3…4e84backed Over | 58c | 86.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 38c | 79.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 484 | 45.9%222 W · 262 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b36bbacked Over | 46c | 69.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Under | 55c | 65.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 37c | 65.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 49c | 56.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 50c | 50.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 508 | 56.9%289 W · 219 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 46c | 50.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 476 | 46.8%223 W · 253 L | +27.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Under | 54c | 44.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 68c | 38.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Under | 49c | 31.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 247 | 63.6%157 W · 90 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff9d…0c3fbacked Under | 58c | 28.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b9…47b6backed Under | 49c | 27.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…8268backed Under | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Under | 53c | 23.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 55c | 23.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Under | 55c | 21.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 49c | 20.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 53c | 19.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Under | 65c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Under | 56c | 18.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.