MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04f23d96d561f46346f1abfd5f9680b561853382667d9aef115473bf25c0de85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 58c | 17,176$9,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,295.24 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 6,847$2,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,892.99 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 41c | 5,437$2,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,229.87 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 47c | 3,429$1,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.57 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b38…6dc8backed Over | 12c | 2,140$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6129…0807backed Under | 48c | 1,122$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.44 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 46c | 1,011$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.2 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 52c | 785.89$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.12 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 78c | 599.96$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.99 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 43c | 595.68$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.94 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 39c | 512$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.05 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Under | 61c | 491$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.49 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 63c | 396.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.83 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Over | 49c | 265.31$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 42c | 228.52$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 58c | 218.46$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.48 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 42c | 211.16$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.73 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 47c | 188.5$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…3bb3backed Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x98f9…5cd9backed Over | 18c | 112.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 32c | 110.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcc…d921backed Under | 44c | 107.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 50c | 103$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 102.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Over | 48c | 94.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 48c | 94.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc494…543cbacked Under | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Over | 51c | 92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…44dcbacked Under | 53c | 90.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 59c | 70.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 30c | 48.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Under | 68c | 46.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…8f07backed Over | 53c | 44.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 58c | 43.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 47c | 38.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…0f1abacked Under | 53c | 27.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8eb…94c4backed Under | 59c | 17.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Under | 80c | 16.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.