Tennis · resolved market
Milan: Elmer Moeller vs Norbert Gombos
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31cf884ece3fe09fbf132a0fb44b31e07d47bde7a393d6c71553ab49617a2545
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Elmer Moellerof Elmer Moeller, Norbert Gombos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Elmer Moeller | 62c | 1,999$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.79 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Norbert Gombos | 36c | 1,775$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.49 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Norbert Gombos | 37c | 825.55$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.42 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Elmer Moeller | 65c | 738.46$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.46 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Norbert Gombos | 39c | 712.33$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.21 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Norbert Gombos | 31c | 483$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.73 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Norbert Gombos | 32c | 401$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.13 | 668 | 34.3%229 W · 439 L | -43.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Norbert Gombos | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1,626 | 52.7%857 W · 769 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Elmer Moeller | 65c | 366.12$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.06 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Elmer Moeller | 65c | 358.43$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.9 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Elmer Moeller | 63c | 245$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.04 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Elmer Moeller | 60c | 233.63$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.74 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Elmer Moeller | 57c | 230.96$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.71 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Elmer Moeller | 65c | 224.81$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.42 | 1,795 | 46.6%837 W · 958 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Norbert Gombos | 35c | 202$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Elmer Moeller | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Elmer Moeller | 69c | 177.69$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c8…45f6backed Elmer Moeller | 65c | 175.73$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.17 | 225 | 44.4%100 W · 125 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Norbert Gombos | 40c | 174.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.83 | 359 | 55.7%200 W · 159 L | +20.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Elmer Moeller | 69c | 173.71$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Norbert Gombos | 42c | 161.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 1,853 | 57.7%1,069 W · 784 L | +106.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Elmer Moeller | 66c | 156$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Elmer Moeller | 65c | 124$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Norbert Gombos | 43c | 117.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Norbert Gombos | 40c | 112.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Norbert Gombos | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 499 | 43.5%217 W · 282 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Norbert Gombos | 37c | 105.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Elmer Moeller | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 354 | 57.3%203 W · 151 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Elmer Moeller | 60c | 84.62$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad5…ccdebacked Norbert Gombos | 35c | 84.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 550 | 32.7%180 W · 370 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Norbert Gombos | 37c | 82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Elmer Moeller | 67c | 81.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Norbert Gombos | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,044 | 53.8%1,100 W · 944 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d7…f9bbbacked Norbert Gombos | 50c | 68.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Elmer Moeller | 70c | 68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2022…37d9backed Norbert Gombos | 39c | 59.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Norbert Gombos | 44c | 52.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…2a5abacked Norbert Gombos | 33c | 45.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Norbert Gombos | 44c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Elmer Moeller | 65c | 43.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Norbert Gombos | 37c | 39.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2,855 | 49.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Norbert Gombos | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,678 | 50.8%852 W · 826 L | +30.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Elmer Moeller | 63c | 33.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Norbert Gombos | 35c | 33.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Norbert Gombos | 35c | 32.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Elmer Moeller | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Elmer Moeller | 63c | 27.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Elmer Moeller | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Elmer Moeller | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…d585backed Elmer Moeller | 59c | 23.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.