Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a6c6e3720424dd2163fc7ce26255870fe2914730d7ad3fb98417f1fe07a02f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 1,022$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 817.39$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 39c | 771.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4ca8backed Yes | 31c | 640.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.4 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 17c | 537.37$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 25c | 415.86$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.95 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 71c | 407$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.33 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 20c | 406.16$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.77 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 52c | 356.69$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.67 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 28c | 329.4$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.62 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 306.11$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.01 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 283.27$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 35c | 282.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 250.81$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.63 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 230$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.63 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 226.1$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.27 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 80c | 213.85$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…741cbacked Yes | 38c | 183.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked No | 61c | 170$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 60c | 160.31$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.61 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 150.34$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 57c | 149.89$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.15 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 24c | 131.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 10c | 123.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 25c | 115.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 77c | 111.74$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 29c | 107.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 104.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 77c | 104$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 17c | 102.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 45c | 100.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 97.86$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 90.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 16c | 88.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 75c | 82.56$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 45c | 75.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 25c | 74.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 15c | 73.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 18c | 73.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…893cbacked No | 66c | 68.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 66.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 53c | 61.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 25c | 60.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 74c | 57.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…9b39backed No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 48.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 47.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 48c | 39.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 37.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 37c | 32.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 33c | 31.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 31.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 49c | 29.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bd…aa80backed Yes | 40c | 27.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 27.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3872…fa4ebacked No | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 65c | 25.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 64c | 23.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 49c | 23.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 22.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 50c | 20.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 62c | 20.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…b631backed No | 73c | 19.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46bb…0e9fbacked No | 73c | 17.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 64c | 17.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 74c | 16.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…953bbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C or below on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.