Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e403da82eae6a78918fa4c9cb9e0c7f1b5a21e079de586dd8cda0efb652193d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 932.99$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.79 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 785$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 30c | 664.96$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.49 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 511.26$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 3c | 420.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…c124backed Yes | 41c | 389.44$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 18c | 355.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 340$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.08 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 58c | 306.43$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 46c | 255.87$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.53 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 19c | 233.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed Yes | 42c | 214.28$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 22c | 211.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 30c | 200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 177.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 165$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.03 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 162.93$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 27c | 160.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 65c | 158.8$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 149.89$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 27c | 140.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 62c | 127.96$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…3ee3backed Yes | 41c | 123.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 114.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 110.36$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 109.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 65c | 103.11$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 98.89$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 19c | 95.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked Yes | 31c | 91.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 34c | 73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 39c | 69.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 36c | 67.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 36c | 65.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 50c | 60.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 41c | 57.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 57.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 34c | 53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 42c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 59c | 45.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 27c | 45.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 43.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 30c | 41.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 40.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 67c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 36.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 44c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 37c | 32.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked No | 71c | 31.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 30.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 65c | 29.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 44c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 74c | 25.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 61c | 24.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 59c | 22.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 59c | 19.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C or below on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.