Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b150f5d64d5f31088b384751c96434ca68cc42d47736745f8ded09b45ea745b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 1,606$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,398.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 1,244$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 4c | 776.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 9c | 750.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 32c | 427.19$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.19 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked No | 64c | 372.26$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.02 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 339.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 4c | 338.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…c124backed Yes | 62c | 315.21$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 271.12$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.44 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 79c | 228$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.77 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 68c | 215.1$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.84 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 197.1$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 181$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.82 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 46c | 177.4$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.27 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 19c | 172.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.59 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 7c | 161.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.22 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…2f9abacked Yes | 24c | 144.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.33 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 65c | 131.5$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.52 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 79c | 129.12$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.61 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 121.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 110.27$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 20c | 101.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.47 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 37c | 95.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 94.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…6a9bbacked Yes | 38c | 84.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 21c | 78.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked Yes | 35c | 78.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.34 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 21c | 77.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f1…eed4backed No | 68c | 72.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…521bbacked Yes | 19c | 71.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +162.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 51c | 71.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 22c | 69.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 39c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 34c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 33c | 51.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…511bbacked Yes | 49c | 47.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 67c | 37.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 64c | 34.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 33.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 67c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 70c | 23.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 79c | 16.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 15.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2657…bad1backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 77c | 13.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C or below on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.