MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c1ae31aa4deb643af9f2a38785b70dfc329c44c4264a12616d64219bbcf90ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 51c | 10,000$5,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,080.15 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 5,750$2,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,952.59 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 5,738$2,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,928.16 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 56c | 5,447$3,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,050.95 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 41c | 2,757$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,626.63 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…d471backed Over | 61c | 2,114$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.75 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 40c | 420$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 59c | 400$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 50c | 319.56$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.78 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Under | 47c | 278.99$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.87 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 229.38$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.76 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 41c | 185.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.37 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 46c | 144.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 58c | 136$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 51c | 123.7$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 53c | 122.02$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 55c | 111.58$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 40c | 110.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 47c | 100.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe3…a9f7backed Under | 49c | 93.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…4856backed Over | 59c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 62c | 81.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 45c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117b…f017backed Under | 49c | 70.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 55c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…5f54backed Under | 47c | 58.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…66e2backed Over | 49c | 44.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -49%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 39c | 41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Under | 44c | 39.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 39c | 26.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…7fecbacked Over | 60c | 24.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6f76backed Over | 52c | 23.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 60c | 20.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh PiratesSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.