MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef4d1abda2794b38e0f82752e0cbd279b036a2e383b7aa679b9605342b10a580
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Seattle Mariners, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 59,977$26,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,652 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 25,445$14,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,642.15 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 9,165$5,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,032.74 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 8,894$4,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,913.36 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 8,525$3,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,739.61 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 4,216$2,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,897.02 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Mariners | 25c | 2,364$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.03 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 1,909$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.05 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 1,454$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.17 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 1,364$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.64 | 493 | 58.8%290 W · 203 L | +30.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 73c | 1,264$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.15 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 1,217$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.68 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 934.49$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.89 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 705.47$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.41 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 700.1$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.13 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Seattle Mariners | 27c | 626.19$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.07 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 420$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 414.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.12 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 396.55$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.55 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 389.75$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.96 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 305.73$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.73 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 259.98$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.19 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Seattle Mariners | 20c | 221$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 211.29$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 178.74$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 169$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…781ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 139.75$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 120.4$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 119.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 93.02$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 199 | 54.3%108 W · 91 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…12d6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 138 | 53.6%74 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Seattle Mariners | 29c | 83.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 80.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 79.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…afddbacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Seattle Mariners | 27c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 50.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 46.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Seattle Mariners | 32c | 44.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7de2…cd3fbacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 44.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +7.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 40.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdca…5382backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 36.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 32.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 27.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 647 | 52.4%339 W · 308 L | +28.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5b…3b06backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 25.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…8f86backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh PiratesSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.